Americans Are “In Charge” Of The War Says French Journalist Who Returned From Ukraine

 A French journalist who returned from Ukraine after arriving with volunteer fighters told broadcaster CNews that Americans are directly “in charge” of the war on the ground.

The assertion was made by Le Figaro senior international correspondent Georges Malbrunot.

Malbrunot said he had accompanied French volunteer fighters, two of whom had previously fought against ISIS.

“I had the surprise, and so did they, to discover that to be able to enter the Ukrainian army, well it’s the Americans who are in charge,” said Malbrunot.

Adding that he and the volunteers “almost got arrested” by the Americans, who asserted they were in charge, the journalist then revealed that they were forced to sign a contract “until the end of the war.”

Malbrunot also mentioned America providing Ukraine with switchblade suicide drones, something highlighted by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in a tweet that revealed Ukrainian soldiers were being trained to use the devices in Biloxi, Mississippi.

[…]

Citing a French intelligence source, Malbrunot also tweeted that British SAS units “have been present in Ukraine since the beginning of the war, as did the American Deltas.”

Russia is apparently well aware of the “secret war” being waged in Ukraine by foreign commandos who have been in the region since February.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/americans-are-charge-war-says-french-journalist-who-returned-ukraine

Mariupol, in Ruins, Still Looms Large for Russia and Ukraine

Defenders of besieged port city have frustrated Moscow’s troops, keeping thousands

Mariupol’s defenders have frustrated Russia’s seven-week efforts to seize the city, which sits near separatist territory that Moscow’s Ukrainian allies grabbed in 2014, when Russia also took over Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula.

‘This Is What We Trained For:’ Soldiers Depart to Help Humanitarian Crisis in Europe

Dozens of Canadian soldiers boarded a plane to Poland Friday for what their commander said would be an intense but gratifying mission to help Ukrainians fleeing Russian aggression.

The roughly 80 soldiers who took off from Edmonton and another 20 from Trenton, Ont., will offer humanitarian assistance at reception centres throughout Poland, said Maj. Ryan Pridmore, a company commander with 3rd Battalion Princess Patricia’s Canadian Light Infantry.

They, along with a Canadian medical unit, are to support the Polish Territorial Defence Force on a two-month mission.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/this-is-what-we-trained-for-soldiers-depart-to-help-humanitarian-crisis-in-europe_4407319.html

THE ECONOMY OF WAR

EU To Impose Full Embargo On Russian Oil Next Week, Will Send Price Above $185 According To JPMorgan

What was largely a theoretical modeling exercise until moments ago, is set to go live because Reuters reports that the EU is set to declare a full embargo on Russian oil after this weekend’s French election.

Why wait until after the election to launch the embargo?

[…]

A look at the various scenarios, starting with the most draconian:

• A full and immediate embargo is likely to hurt European consumers more than Russian producers in the near term. More importantly, a full, immediate ban would likely drive Brent crude oil prices to $185/bbl as more than 4 mbd of Russian oil supplies would be displaced with neither room nor time to re-route them to China, India, or other potential substitute buyers.

Some more details on the “full embargo” scenario:

Though India has already increased its imports of Russian oil to three times 2021 levels, its ability to continue to act as a sink for displaced Russian oil supply remains in question as the US warns India not to increase imports further.

• However, if Europe implements an embargo more slowly, e.g. over a period of months, similar to the European ban on Russian coal imports where a wind-down period of four months is in place, prices are unlikely to rise much higher than current levels.
• In a slower phase out, Russia would have more time to adjust its oil flows toward friendlier buyers and global ex-OPEC+ supply growth would have time to grow sufficiently to fill at least some of the Russia-sized hole in global oil supply.

The EU is also entertaining less drastic alternatives to a full embargo which would allow Europe to continue to receive Russian oil supply while still applying financial pressure on Moscow. These alternatives include introducing i) special taxes and ii) price caps on European imports of Russian oil.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/full-embargo-russian-oil-would-send-brent-185bbl-jpmorgan

PANDEMIC

Zero COVID Horror Show in Shanghai

Shanghai, the financial capital of China with a population of 25 million people, currently faces its third week of steep increases in cases of COVID-19.

In response, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) implemented harsh COVID-19 restrictions in Shanghai, sending an army of healthcare workers to enforce them. Citizens cannot leave their homes. They can only receive medical care upon presenting a negative COVID test. Healthcare workers are forcing COVID-positive individuals into quarantine camps and stripping children from their parents. Government officials are even executing pets in the street when the pet owners test positive for COVID. People are running out of food, screaming from their windows, and jumping out of buildings in protest.

Zero COVID Horror Show in Shanghai

The post PI Newsletter #190 appeared first on Polonia Institute.

POLAND AND RUSSIA

Freedom and despotism side by side

the 10th through 21st century

by Andrzej Nowak

Can we understand Russia? How to defend ourselves against her?

Why? — This question comes to mind every time we reflect on Russia’s history and Polish-Russian relations. Why is Russia afraid of Poland? Why have Western countries naively believed in Moscow’s good intentions for centuries? Why is there so much brutality, violence, and backwardness in the history of Russia until today? Why was it bloodthirsty in attacking countries it considered weaker, for example, Poland in 1920 or 1939, Georgia in 2008, or Ukraine in 2022?

Prof. Andrzej Nowak reveals the sources of the Russian mentality, going back to the times of the foundation of the Polish state and Kyivan Rus, when Moscow was a patch of land in the wilderness overgrown with grass and forests, leading the reader to modern times and the shameful invasion of Ukraine by Vladimir Putin. The scholar explains that Ruthenia is not Russia, and the heritage of that historical land has nothing to do with modern Moscow. It was not until the 15^th century that Moscow was perceived as a military threat at the courts in Cracow and Vilnius when the tsars began to use arguments that we hear today to justify their wars against Poland — the alleged defense of the Orthodox minority and the unification of all Ruthenians under one scepter.

It is also worth noting the civilizational gap between Poland and Russia. When tens of thousands of Polish nobility were deciding about the fate of the Republic of Poland at the sejmiki [local parliaments ]and sejmy [parliaments], the time of oprichnina came in Russia, i.e., brutal terror and the power of the special services. When hundreds of books and political magazines were written on the Vistula River, the tsarist empire did not know maps, hardly anyone could read or write, and there were no schools. Fear of Poland grew, and so did hatred.

This hatred seemed to be ending in the eighteenth century when Tsarina Catherine humiliated the Commonwealth by installing her lover on the Polish throne, kidnapping Polish senators, and finally ordering the partitions. In addition to Moscow’s raw military strength, it was also caused by the internal weakness of the state, and Poland lost its sovereignty, formally being an ally of Russia. We are warned against this by Prof. Andrzej Nowak. It is a valuable and essential lesson today and is the most significant value of this book.

The author constantly draws conclusions from the history of Polish-Russian relations that are important to us now — especially now. He leads us through the heroism of the nineteenth-century uprisings to the great victory in 1920 and then to the activities of the Russian agents in the Second Polish Republic and the ever-dangerous German-Russian cooperation, which culminated in the crimes of World War II. We stop only in modern times when we see with our own eyes and so close to us in Ukraine the unrestrained and criminal imperial appetite of Vladimir Putin.

Prof. Andrzej Nowak based his analysis on previously unknown documents and research that he conducted in Moscow archives. He warned and still warns against the bloodthirsty beast that also has its supporters on the Vistula River. The time of pretending is over. This book is about to shake us up. Will we wake up? …

The post An essential book for today. Can we understand Russia? How to defend ourselves against her? appeared first on Polonia Institute.

If one were to forsake the observation of current events for a moment and then look at the international balance of power and Moscow’s position from a broader perspective, there should be no doubt about one issue: Russia is tanking. The problem is that Vladimir Putin has grabbed the Ukrainians and the European Union by their legs and is trying to drag all others underwater along with Russia’s own sheer weight. They are using a drowning person’s blackmail:

“Either you agree to my terms, or I will drown us all.”

However, the Ukrainians will not give in and are determined to cut off more Russian knuckles from the grip holding on to them. The West supplies the defenders with the necessary tools, simultaneously trying to cut off the energy umbilical cord that connects European countries with Russia. The question is whether European lungs are sufficiently developed to “breathe” both gas and oil — all on their own?

The Russian Federation has already lost — the question is, how much damage will it still do?

The thesis in the headline should not be taken as wishful thinking. Russia was heading for a catastrophe even before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the drastic sanctions that followed. It was not without reason that American analysts pointed out that after the year 2030, Russia would cease to be an adversary and a worry for the United States. Either Vladimir Putin read their reports or the conclusions aligned with the Russian analyses. That is why the decision was probably made to take drastic measures. Only the lack of success in Ukraine — which was probably supposed to be the seizure of power in Kyiv within a maximum of 2-3 days — resulted in getting stuck in a full-fledged war. With all its consequences. The processes that had so far consumed Russia slowly have now accelerated. While it can be said that time was running out in 2021, it is now too late for Moscow. On all levels. The horsemen of the Russian apocalypse have just mounted their steeds and set out to reap their harvest. From Vladivostok to Kaliningrad. A few ghastly points follow.

 The phantom of regression

In 2019, the Russian GDP, calculated taking into account the purchasing power of money, was 3.3 times greater than Poland’s (RUS: USD 4.2 trillion, POL: USD 1.4 trillion). It is worth adding dynamics to the comparison. The distance between Poland and Russia has been decreasing every year. Let us remind you that 38 million people work for Poland’s GDP and 144 million people for Russia (so there are nearly 4x more Russians). It is enough to say that the value of Polish imports (converted into dollars) has been higher than that of Russian imports for several years. In other words, we are a more receptive market for foreign partners and companies. Not only that — our territory is located next to the largest and wealthiest market in Europe (Germany). We are well positioned with the economic center of Europe. Poland has a relatively small and compact territory that is easy to connect and service. Goods are and reach everywhere, and society is much wealthier and more willing to consume. This is entirely different from the Russian territory, 17,000,000 km2, geographically long, stretching across the entire Asian continent. Emptiness, poor communication links, and huge distances between cities beyond the Urals pose significant logistic problems. The Russian market is vast in area but relatively small in terms of trade volume.

It is worth pointing out that in 2012 the Russian GDP (already converted into dollars) amounted to around 2.3 trillion dollars. In 2019, it was just under USD 1.67 trillion, and 2020 ended in a regression to USD 1.48 trillion. Poland jumped from USD 498 billion to USD 594 billion in 2012-2020. In other words, in 2020, our GDP was 40% of Russia’s.

After 2013, Russia’s GDP began to shrink rapidly. After eight years, the Russian economy has not returned to its previous level.

Furthermore, now it is worth adding that, according to the Russian economist Tatiana Mikhailova, as a result of the war and sanctions, Russian GDP will drop in the coming months to the level of 1995 (395 billion dollars — that is 200 billion less than Poland’s GDP!).

In 2012, we could pay about 11 Polish groszy for the rouble. In 2020, only six groszy were enough. Today it is a junk currency (PLN 0.03 per rouble — as of March 2022).

Rouble-Dollar exchange rate. Today, you have to pay as much as 80 rubles for one dollar; in 2013, it was just over 30.

 The specter of bankruptcy

Before 2020, the value of sales of fossil fuels accounted for half of the value of all Russian exports, which also corresponded to the value of half of the state budget. Income from the extraction of hydrocarbons directly translated into nearly 15% of the country’s GDP and indirectly had an even more significant impact. And 90% of all Russian gas exports went to Europe and Turkey.

Even then, many factors heralded the troubles of the Russian budget. Poland and its entire economic environment are becoming independent from Russian gas (investments in the Baltic Pipe project, gas delivery networks, LNG terminals). The EU climate policy (focusing on renewable energy sources) and the announced revolution in the automotive industry (abandoning oil). Add to this, the entering into the European hydrocarbon market by a prominent player, i.e., the United States. The latter thanks to the technology of obtaining gas and oil from shale, have impressively entered the EU market with their own raw materials.

In this regard, the hope for Vladimir Putin was the investment in Nord Stream II (NS II). However, it was not an economic argument (because it is with oil, not gas, that the Russians earn the most) but only a political instrument to pressure Poland and other Central and Eastern Europe (like Ukraine). However, the plan backfired in the face of sanctions on the NS II project. After its construction, political pressure (officially — procedural issues) prevented the gas pipeline from launching.

At the same time, the sanctions still maintained (after 2014) by the EU and the US did not allow for the acquisition of technology and capital that would enable the extraction of Russian hydrocarbons from the Arctic region. Without tapping into these resources — as the Russian Energy Minister Aleksandr Novak estimated in 2019 — oil production may drop by half in 2035 (due to the depleted and currently exploited deposits).

So it is evident to the Russians themselves that the cash flow from the sale of hydrocarbons would soon turn into a barely dripping spigot. Instead of waiting for the slow waning of capital inflows, Putin decided to act. As a result, the West intends to completely cut off from Russian resources — today.

What seems to be saving the Russian budget is the current sharp jump in the price of energy resources. After the 2014 invasion, the price of crude oil fell from around $ 110 (February 2014) per barrel to $ 31 (February 2016). Later, COVID reduced the price to about $ 27 a barrel (April 2020). Today, the price has jumped back up to over $ 100, and the Russians are stuffing their pockets with cash. Natural gas prices went through the above process almost in parallel terms.

Oil price per barrel (USD)

Unfortunately for the Russians, however, they are not the ones who have the most significant influence on market prices. The United States and, above all, OPEC is of great importance in this matter. In the past, it was different, but the US has strong influence and arguments, thanks to which it can influence the decisions of Arab oil exporters. Moreover, just wait for such an agreement to be made. Lowering the price of energy resources would significantly impact the Russian budget.

The transactions themselves are not enough. Because politics is also crucial in economics, as the sale of Russian energy resources is carried out in dollar transactions. Meanwhile, the Russians have a problem spending these dollars due to the sanctions. They can collect dollars, but at the moment, it is like collecting waste paper. That is why it was decided to make the recipients pay in roubles, which was also supposed to strengthen/support the position of the Russian currency. The problem is that settlements in junk roubles only discourage customers from using Russian resources.

For years, Russia has been increasing its currency reserves in preparation for possible war and more challenging economic sanctions. Graph: The amount of foreign exchange reserves expressed in millions of dollars.

And here we come to the question of many years of Russian preparations for possible sanctions and economic isolation. Kremlin authorities stocked up on gold and currencies other than the dollar. It was supposed to be rainy day weather security. The problem is that after the February attack on Ukraine, some of these reserves were — as part of the sanctions — frozen. And the resources found in Russia are basically hard to cash in on. For the needs of the internal market, the Moscow central bank can print as many roubles as needed (at the expense of a check on inflation). However, if you want to obtain parts, goods, and technology from the outside (for example, from China), the rubbish rouble is no longer suitable. Even the Chinese will not want to accept an equivalent of waste paper as payment for their goods, which cannot be later used in trade with anyone other than Russia itself. And that poses a risk. Because the falling rouble and the spiral of inflation mean that if the Chinese earn 1,000 roubles on the Russian market on one day, this amount may be much smaller on the next. So, selling Chinese products in Russia — in exchange for roubles — has become unprofitable.

On the other hand, if the Russians have so far imported something from the West, it was not profitable for them to import the same products from China, or they were unavailable there. So, replacing the supply chain will be either problematic or more expensive. Especially if the Russians will import using the yuan, while the rouble exchange rate will make buying anything abroad (be it from China or any other country) — incredibly costly. All of this will hit mainly the private sector.

At the moment, the level of inflation in Russia is difficult to measure. The authorities acknowledged that inflation was 12.5% ​​between March 2021 and March 2022. At the same time, it should be assumed that official announcements on this matter are significantly understated, as was the case in Turkey.

Inflation in Russia jumped sharply after 2014. At the moment, we are observing a similar phenomenon, although the data provided by the Russian government may still be understated.

The Russian economy and industry will suffer for all these reasons because some trade ties with the West cannot be replaced with a Chinese replacement. The Russian private sector is at a loss. If they can be bought at all, Chinese goods will be expensive. The risk of transactions with the Russians will be high. Of course, the Kremlin authorities will cope with the most urgent needs. They will be able to pay the Chinese for their most urgent needs in gold, foreign exchange, and raw materials. However, private companies will not be able to do so.

Additionally, it should be remembered that such wasted reserves (gold, foreign currencies) will run out quickly. At the end of 2021, Russian reserves were valued at $ 624 billion, which would allow Russia to meet its import needs for a year. Gold accounted for 21% of this amount. It is difficult to estimate how much of Russia’s reserves have been placed abroad (and therefore have now been frozen). Nevertheless, a cautious thesis can be made that Russia will have to tighten its belt in six months’ time significantly.

 The specter of corruption

In Russia, corruption is a natural tool for the functioning of society, the state, and its elites. Moscow is corrupting its disobedient regions. Huge sums are transferred from the central budget to problematic regions, which guarantees the loyalty of the local apparatchiks. The examples of Dagestan and Chechnya are the most expressive. At the same time, the Kremlin authorities buy loyalty for themselves in the conquered or dependent areas such as Crimea, Donbas, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia with cash. The funds transferred by Moscow sometimes constitute 90% of the budget of a given administrative unit. Of course, all this is at the expense of the regions that contribute much more to the common coffers than they take out of it. This is especially true of those districts famous for extracting energy resources. This, in turn, arouses their dislike of the Moscow authorities.

In domestic politics, it is similar at the elite level. Vladimir Putin has made the most prominent and most influential oligarchs dependent on himself, providing them with good contracts and jobs that assure huge profits. In 2016, 1% of the wealthiest Russians owned nearly 43% of the national wealth. Social inequalities continue to rise, and the middle class becomes poorer. In 2018, the wealthiest 3% of Russians owned 89% of all financial assets in the country. The wealthiest 100 oligarchs had more savings in their accounts than the rest of the Russian population. This phenomenon kills initiative and entrepreneurship in society and thus hurts innovation. A society made up of serfs and masters has no chance of developing as fast as the capitalist and democratic world. A “lagging behind” increases.

In turn, corruption at the lowest level of society and state administration, just like a cancer, slows down and degrades the activities of subsequent state bodies. It also distorts social morality. The state functions less and less efficiently at each successive level of the administrative or social pyramid.

For years, Russia has been ranked very far in the ranking of countries with the lowest corruption index.

Knowing all this, you should ask yourself what will happen to Russia as a state, social and administrative structure if the cash desk runs out of cash? Will regions that have shown separatist sentiments in the past continue to be loyal? Will Putin’s people be loyal?

The spirit of backwardness

All this together means that Russia cannot sustain itself in the technological race with the West and China. Moreover, this is a direct threat to the state. Imagine a situation where Russia’s nuclear arsenal would become so obsolete that it would cease to act as a deterrent … Therefore, Vladimir Putin, like Peter the Great, would like to make a technological leap in Russia. For centuries — due to many different factors — the problem is that such a jump in Russia could only take place thanks to the state’s involvement. And only by acquiring knowledge from the outside.

Meanwhile, Russia has been cut off from the know-how and technology of the West, and the Chinese also do not intend to share their discoveries with her. The proverbial Ivan does not have the materials, means, and sufficient motivation to make technological progress simultaneously on all levels. Relying only on its own technical thought and inherent possibilities, Russia must limit itself and choose spheres of involvement. Of course, the Kremlin has always focused on armaments, which completes (closes) the technology cycle in Russia. Because military research in Russia is closely guarded, military technology is not seeping so well into the business-commercial sphere as it is happening in the West. As a result, the money pumped into the armaments sector even impoverishes and impedes the development of the rest of the country (as it was in the times of the USSR).

Meanwhile, an inefficient economy and poor society cannot support development. A globalized world in which countries focusing on selected fields can exchange technologies from various levels is rushing forward. Russia stands still and tries to chase the rest with great effort only in selected sections.

 The humane Grim Reaper

However, economic problems are not the only ones. Russia is dying out. The birth rate has been dropping drastically since 1995 (similarly to Poland). There are less than 1.6 children per woman in Russia, and the fertility rate among ethnic minorities is much higher than that of native Russians. On the one hand, few children are born, while on the other hand, an inefficient and underfunded health care system and a catastrophic social situation in terms of drugs, alcoholism, and the AIDS epidemic contribute to premature death. Russia’s life expectancy stats show approximately 72 years (66 for men, 77 for women). In Poland, we live on average five years longer, and yet our country is not among the world’s leaders in this respect. By 2030, the number of Russians may be reduced by 3.5 million people — not considering natural disasters, wars or pandemics. Meanwhile, it is unknown how many lives COVID-19 has taken in Russia.

The demographic pyramid in Russia. Baby boomers are now between 30 and 44 years old. They are now a burden on the farming states. In 20 years, these people will start to retire.

The pension system is an additional problem. Around 2050, the generation of today’s 30-year-olds will begin to retire in Russia. If all of them reached retirement age, the system in Russia could collapse.

Vladimir Putin tried to reform the pension system to prepare for the mounting problems. However, waves of protests delayed and watered down the program. In 2018, a version was finally passed that will gradually raise the retirement age in Russia by 2028 from 55 for women and 60 for men to 60 for women and 65 for men (currently at 56 and 61). The earlier idea of ​​abruptly raising the retirement age quicker met great social opposition. And no wonder. If in 2028 the Russians live on average as long as they do today, they will only enjoy their retirement for a year. A few ago, it was even worse because a statistical man in Russia lived less than 65 years (it can be maliciously written that a pension in Russia would be paid only after death).

Nevertheless, this dire state of Russian society will change quickly. The war with Ukraine, drastic sanctions, increasing poverty, and lack of funds for health care can effectively solve possible problems of the pension system in Russia. At the cost of accelerating the process of depopulating the state and weakening it at almost every other level.

 The demons of war

By his full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin wasted years of quite skillfully conducting foreign policy. This is not a novelty but rather a repetition of 2013 when Russia broke the terms of the 2009 reset of relations with the US. After the deal with Barack Obama, Putin got everything he expected. Agreement to create a political and economic bloc of Eurasia from Lisbon to Vladivostok. Economic and technological cooperation. Acceptance of Western Europe’s dependence on Russian energy resources. In addition, the Americans deactivated the Second US Navy Fleet, which was responsible for the North Atlantic, and thus was a counterbalance to the Russian Northern Fleet. What attracted the most attention in Poland was the fact that Barack Obama gave up building the anti-missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic.

However, appetites increase with eating. Vladimir Putin, helping Bashar Assad in 2013, started playing against the USA. He believed that his political alliance with Germany was unquestionable, primarily due to Berlin’s energy dependence. All this ended with Ukraine’s separation from the Russian sphere of influence, with Poland, Romania, and the Baltic states being removed from the German sphere of influence, and with American involvement in the region of Central and Eastern Europe. Russia’s reaction was the invasion of Crimea and Donbas, which in turn, exposed Russia to sanctions not only from the US but also from the European Union. From that moment on, Russia started on a downward slope in terms of its economy, development, and society’s situation. However, Kremlin’s authorities tried to play their cards at the political level.

In subsequent years, Putin tried to strengthen the possibility of energy blackmail concerning Europe (Nord Stream II) and, at the same time, used the argument of force. He increased the subordination of Lukashenka and limited the development of Ukraine (including by freezing the conflict in Donbas). The Russians defended Assad in Syria. They won against Turkey at the Kurdish table. They maintained their influence in the Transcaucasus, where there was an Azerbaijani-Armenian clash. They demonstrated their position in Kazakhstan, where there have been changes to the unofficial governance structure. At the same time, cooperation with China looked relatively stable, and a common enemy — the United States — united the interests of Beijing and Moscow.

On February 24, 2022, Vladimir Putin once again overturned the chessboard table, on which he had been carefully moving successive pieces for the past seven years.

 A one-way ticket

All the above processes are described in a little more detail in the book: “The Third Decade. The world today and in 10 years.” [Pol.: „Trzecia Dekada. Świat dziś i za 10 lat”.]  I also put forward the thesis that Vladimir Putin has no chance of getting a deal that would be satisfactory for him with the Americans. The differences in expectations on both sides are too significant and cannot be reconciled. After the experience of the failed reset in 2009, the United States expected a firm guarantee that Russia would not turn against them again at the most challenging moment for Americans. For example, during the competition with China, which could outweigh the scales on the side of Beijing and thwart Washington’s efforts to maintain its position and stop the Chinese march. Such a guarantee could be Russia’s total dependence on US political will to sell energy resources to Europe. The problem is that it was not possible to build such a dependency, and Germany, which could support the US in this regard, turned out to be an untrustworthy partner.

On the other hand, the Russians did not intend to fight China (on any level) and — in the interest of the United States. It would be suicide for Moscow. Putin wanted to build a political and economic project independent of the US and be competitive with the Americans, based on the Berlin-Moscow (+ Paris) axis, which also ruled out dependence on the US. Washington policymakers could not agree to this because it would mean a complete collapse of the American world and hegemony. Without European support, the Americans would have a huge problem competing with China.

So much for geopolitical issues. The February 24^th invasion completely reevaluated the arguments. The war crimes committed by Russian troops disclosed in Ukraine and the fact that they were committed based on previously-issued orders from the very top should dispel any fantasies about an agreement between the USA and Russia or, even more broadly: the West-Russia. Because apart from political and economic arguments, another one has arrived, much more important and related to credibility, which is of great importance in foreign policy.

Russia has no chance of a handshake with the West, friendship, or even an alliance. Nobody wants to have a friend who, when invited to dinner, will start to slaughter the host’s family with cutlery as soon as the host goes to the kitchen to serve the baked turkey.

At the same time, the problematic nature of a possible return to even correct relations with Russia is not only related to Vladimir Putin. The Russian press writes almost directly about the criminal policy of the authorities, presenting it as being the correct one. Meanwhile, in Russian society, support for Putin is growing, which should tone down the hopes of even the greatest supporters of a conciliatory policy toward Moscow.

All of this may lead to one conclusion. It is in the interest of the USA and all of the West (including Poland) to neutralize Russia as such. Hit it so hard that for the next 100 years, the Russians would have to think about internal problems and not have the time or strength to get involved in foreign policy, nor think about returning to the empire from the times of the USSR or the tsarist regime.

Putin, Russia, and the Russians served themselves a one-way ticket. And it seems that both in Washington and in European capitals, the elites are beginning to mature to this idea. For Russia has left no other choice to its potential partners.

A Chinese lifebuoy?

Throughout this puzzle, China now appears to be Russia’s last resort. However, this is only an illusion. The Beijing authorities are not among those that help and strengthen competitors for free. And this is really what the Russian Federation is. In fact, the Chinese will take advantage of Russia’s weakness to dictate a high enough price for their help. However, it should be remembered that the economy and prosperity of the Middle Kingdom depend on supply chains and mainly on sea routes. The United States and its allies control these. The Chinese do not care about fighting in the interests of Russia against the hegemon. Beijing would lose the most from this, as building a middle class in China to replace export profits with domestic demand has not been completed. Beijing needs an injection of Western cash.

Moreover, the Chinese economy depends on oil supplies by sea (mainly from the Middle East). The Chinese also import LNG and wthout these resources, the development of the Middle Kingdom would not be possible.

In other words, the Americans hold the arguments to persuade the Chinese to stop supporting Russia. China needs time to develop and become independent from the US and the West. Furthermore, they will be ready to field the Russians to gain this time, especially if it leads to a confrontation between Washington and Moscow. It should be remembered that while the Americans are doing everything they can to secure NATO, they are not really eager to confront Russia because of Ukraine. There is one reason. They fear that a commitment against Moscow will encourage the Chinese to open a new front in the Far East. Therefore, they prudently look at both sides and wait. If, on the other hand, Beijing guaranteed that there would be no second front … So, for the Chinese, provoking a fight between competitors and gaining additional years of peace may be an irresistible temptation.

Of course, China wants to extract the best possible price from the Americans in exchange for neutrality. Therefore, a very sharp political confrontation may also occur on the Washington – Beijing axis, which should not end in a war. A conflict could thwart many plans for both sides.

Both powers — China and the US — feel unprepared for a clash with each other. The Chinese have not yet completed the construction of the internal market and are still energy dependent on gas and oil imports. Americans feel that they should limit China’s growth now, but they cannot do it in a situation where Western Europe’s position on this issue is still uncertain. The Russians are eager to rearrange eastern Europe and undermine the credibility of the United States as a security provider, which would hit at the entire American system of alliances.

All this leads to the conclusion that Russia will become the first victim of its own aggressive policy. It is a pity that the Ukrainians have to pay the price for Putin’s geopolitical mistakes.

 What is in the future for Ukraine?

At this point that the text moves from the analytical part to speculation. However, it is worth considering how the further fate of the war in Ukraine may develop. Many commentators point out that Putin changed the strategic goals of the war. The forces shifted to the south and east, and the main purpose of the war was to take over Donbas and the southern coast of Ukraine. There were also voices in the public sphere that the longer the war lasted, the better for Ukraine. The flowing support allegedly strengthens the Ukrainian army with each passing day, while the Russians suffer heavy losses. Personally, I find such theses too optimistic. First, the equipment replenishment delivered to Ukraine from the West is a drop in the ocean of needs. Secondly, the Russians have a lot of equipment and mobilization opportunities. They are more potent as a state and as an army in total. The war envisioning complete destruction will be a catastrophe for Ukraine, also, when it comes to the destruction of a country that will have to rebuild itself for decades to come, even if it survives. Fortunately for the Ukrainians, the Russians are in a hurry to settle the matter because, for them, too, each subsequent day of the war comes at a considerable cost. Therefore, there is hope that the war may be decided in the perspective of months, not years (although a longer scenario cannot be ruled out). If that were to happen, the Ukrainians might have a chance of a favorable outcome in the main battle.

Strategic goals of the war

In addition, contrary to appearances, the strategic goals of the war have not changed at all. As I raised this point before, Russia will gain nothing by occupying one or two additional counties/states in Ukraine with a full-scale invasion. Yes, it will be some military success. Yes, it will weaken Ukraine even more. But from a geopolitical and strategic point of view, it will not wholly improve Russia’s position in the international arena. On the contrary, the scope of the sanctions and the devastation of Russia’s image is so enormous that the Kremlin authorities are now in a much worse position than before the February invasion. In other words, if Moscow does not take control of Kyiv and all of Ukraine, then the war will be a total disaster from a political and economic point of view.

Only the restoration of all of Ukraine to the Russian sphere of influence will allow Putin to threaten the entire West and NATO in the next step. The deployment of entire armies in an additional Ukrainian direction will put enormous pressure on Poland and the whole of the eastern flank of the North Atlantic Pact. The pressure — which the Russians imagined — would force the Americans to agree to Russian conditions. Either that or the US would have to wage a second, long Cold War with Russia, deploying enormous forces in Europe and abandoning the struggle for hegemony against China for several years.

Map showing the strategic situation after the fall of Ukraine. The Russians could put pressure on NATO from many directions while having control over Ukraine.

This is Vladimir Putin’s goal, his last hope. In my opinion— wrong. For the Americans should not give in. Losing the rivalry with Russia would mean a defeat in the whole game to maintain world primacy. Since the US would not be able to cope with the economic dwarf, which is the Russian Federation, the allies could start turning away from Washington. And to focus on partnership with China, fearing for its security (this especially applies to the Far East).

 The Belarusian factor

Coming back to the military issues and the war in Ukraine. The involvement of Ukrainian forces across the country’s entire border is also of crucial importance for the Russians. In addition, help from the Belarusian army would be useful and use forces from Transnistria.

Moreover, if Kyiv remained the main target of the war, I think the current retreat from the north and northeast direction is a tactical retreat on the part of the Russians. After which, there will be a reorganization, better preparation of an offensive plan for this episode, and then a renewed attack. The Russians will try to involve as many Ukrainian forces in the south and the Donbas as possible during this time to weaken the Kyiv direction. At the same time, political movements towards Belarus can be expected. It seems that Lukashenka has not proved to be a stable and loyal ally, as Belarusian troops did not support the Russian invasion. This kind of failing partner is unnecessary for Putin. Either Lukashenka will submit himself entirely to the will of the Kremlin, or he will be replaced. The latter option could also explain the complete withdrawal of the Russians in the north and northeast of Ukraine. After all, they did not have to make such a great retreat. However, they did. If Putin planned to put pressure on Minsk, then it would be better for the Russian troops fighting in Ukraine not to be dependent on communication and logistic lines in Belarus.

At the same time, the forces withdrawn from Ukraine have not been redeployed and are still located in Belarus. This may be a factor threatening the Ukrainians and placing additional pressure on Minsk.

 Ukraine has not won

So far, the course of the fighting has certainly inspired many people with optimism. However, it should be pointed out that the Ukrainians have a problem on the south-eastern front. And the Russians will not give up; Putin cannot afford to lose the war. If Moscow decides to invade, one should expect stubbornness (despite initial setbacks) and readiness to incur significant losses, if only to achieve its strategic goals. This approach ended disastrously for the Soviet Union in Afghanistan (where the war lasted ten years), but nothing has changed since then. Authoritarian states do this — victory is the only thing that matters, no matter the cost.

A new factor emerges in the current situation in Ukraine. The muddy season. An unsuccessful 1^st phase of the conflict, problems with logistics, insufficient forces for the invasion, disregarding the opponent, and the need for reorganization. All this meant that we watched a kind of a war pause for several weeks. Nevertheless, in April, the partial assignment of some draftees began in Russia, so fresh soldiers may be sent to the front lines. It will not be a first-class soldier, but the sheer weight, numbers, and equipment resources can do their job.

Therefore, it can be assumed that the Ukrainians will face a much more difficult test than the one they passed in the first month of the full-scale war. It is just that the Russians may not make the same mistakes this time arounds. Furthermore, this may mean that the Ukrainians will not be able to cope without real help from third countries.

 The Western attitude — growing acceptance for resolute actions

Although the broadly-understood Western countries have become heavily involved in helping Ukraine, this support is indirect. The transfer of funds, weapons, and supplies to Ukrainians certainly helps and affects the number of Russian losses. There is no doubt that such activities by NATO will extend the period in which Ukraine will be able to defend itself. However, you should be aware that this country is much weaker than the Russian Federation.

The Western world has imposed additional sanctions to weaken the Russian Federation, but this is still not enough. The Kremlin authorities are reaping substantial financial benefits from selling oil and gas to Europe, even though the scale of exports has decreased. OPEC’s attitude is of great importance for the possibility of cutting off Russia from the profits from the sale of this black gold. However, Saudi Arabia — which plays the most prominent role in this organization — does not intend to increase its production so far. Therefore, the price of energy resources remains high, and the supply is insufficient to meet the high demand on the market.

Consequently, it can be argued that if the Russian Federation decides to fight until the final victory, then the defeat of the Ukrainians seems to be a matter of time. The state and its economy were devastated by the invader, and the army suffering from losses in equipment — with limited resources — will not be able to defend the country indefinitely. Meanwhile, the scale of aid received is a drop in the bucket in the ocean of needs.

It remains, then, to ask what is our (as the West’s) goal and priority? Is the provision of assistance — for the sake of having a clear conscience — or is it the real effect in the form of Ukraine maintaining its independence and the tasks assuring that the Russian Federation sustain such severe losses that it could not pose a threat to anyone for the next decades?

In the context of the interests of Poland, the Baltic States, Romania, Finland, and the United States, the latter option is more favorable and may even decide the fate of these countries in the long run. Turkey would also be very happy to eliminate the Russian threat in the Black Sea and the Transcaucasus region. In other words, for this group of states, the issue of neutralizing Russia should be paramount. Especially since the perfect situation to achieve this goal has emerged at this point.

Russia, fully committed to the war in Ukraine, cannot afford to open a front in other directions (especially against a stronger NATO). Therefore, the Kremlin authorities are now toothless, although Vladimir Putin tries to convince the world otherwise.

However, democratic states have a problem with taking actions that seem risky in the eyes of public opinion. Moreover, each decisive step requires formal and legal justification. In connection with the above, the attitude of the US and other countries to date has been characterized by a sense of reserve of any initiatives that could involve a greater risk (such as the transfer of Mig-29s or a possible armed peace mission in Ukraine).

Nevertheless, a lot has changed in recent days. The crimes committed by the Russians in Ukraine — as a result of both the initiative of the army itself and political decisions — mean that Western decision-makers no longer are bound by the ties due to the above. The crimes committed against the civilian population shocked world public opinion. Western societies stopped thinking in the context of interests, but consider emotional factors: a note of empathy for Ukrainians and disgust towards the aggressor’s acts begin to prevail on a scale showing an acceptable, upper limit to the aid provided.

At the same time, politicians also gained formal arguments. For if the Russians murder the civilian population in the occupied territories, it is evident that there are grounds for taking such actions that will limit the aggressor’s possibility of territorial expansion.

In other words, from the political and moral point of view, the possible introduction of a peacekeeping mission or creating a cordon sanitaire in Ukraine would have the greatest possible basis. The troops of the allied countries — at the request of the Ukrainians — could enter the territory of Ukraine and secure the territories not yet occupied by the Russians. Especially those located west of the Dnieper River. With each subsequent week of the war, in which the Russians are committing more and more crimes against the civilian population (let us recall the recent rocket attack on the railway station in Kramatorsk), there will be more victims. The public awareness of the need to take some preventive measures in the West will grow. Moreover, with it, the acceptance and even pressure on Western politicians to finally end this bloodbath taking place in Europe. This will also affect the acceptance of higher costs (e.g., for oil) at the expense of giving up on Russian raw materials.

In all this, historical parallels to Hitler’s times and appeasement politics will also play an increasingly important role. Europeans who remember the experiences of world wars begin to remember what a lack of firmness towards dictators who strive for war can lead to.

The processes of maturing politicians and society to make certain decisions proceed in different dynamics. As for the war in Ukraine, it is to be hoped that the awareness of the need to act will prompt us to take firm decisions before Moscow deals with Kyiv. In this context, the protracted war and the extraordinary persistence and determination of the Ukrainians are undoubtedly important. However, it should be remembered that each subsequent week of delay brings new victims, and Ukraine is not prepared to wage war on such a large scale for years. It would be disastrous for the Ukrainians if the Russians led to a tactical truce — resulting in the West not increasing sanctions against Russia — and then they could prepare the next attack much better against the Ukrainian state, weakened and exhausted after the war.

In my opinion, the actions of the Russian Federation — both those undertaken by troops in Ukraine and diplomatic and political movements in the international arena — may break the intellectual stalemate among Western decision-makers, which does not allow for a proper response to aggression. Putin’s relentless attitude and a complete lack of reflection and haughtiness will have to result in a cutting off of Russian energy resources’ supplies completely. At the same time, the option of challenging Russia in Ukraine will become for some NATO countries not only a slogan thrown into space but perhaps the only option that gives hope for stopping Moscow in its military march.

 The collapse of Russia — and possible consequences

Vladimir Putin is leading the Russians decisively and confidently towards geopolitical and economic defeat. The outcome of the war in Ukraine will only decide whether the Russian Federation will have the opportunity to drag more countries down with it. Consequently, it is up to the West — and especially the United States — to decide whether Russia’s aggression in Ukraine will be the last one.

The initiated processes — negative for Russia — seem to lead to a somewhat optimistic conclusion. Ukrainian resistance gives the West an opportunity and time to reflect, prepare and take appropriate action. In turn, the Russian way of waging war only increases the determination of the Ukrainians, and at the same time, it will induce the West to move more and more decisively. Even Putin’s final victory in Ukraine may not be enough to achieve the goals he had set.

In the medium to long term, the Russian Federation has no chance of returning to the table on its own terms. That is, to obtain capital, technology, and consent to create a separate block in the international balance of power. As a result, the accumulated internal problems — the accelerated negative processes — will implode sooner or later, which may end in the collapse of Russia itself (by the separation out of some regions where separatist sentiment has only been dormant) and even a civil war for power over the entire country.

Then there will be considerable changes in the regions that used to be the Russian buffer or zone of influence. We are talking about Eastern Europe and Transcaucasia, the Middle East, and Central Asia. It is also worth remembering that Russia acts as a stabilizing force (see protection against the Kurds, Assad, and Armenia). For Russia to fall out of its role as a major player in the international arena can cause much chaos.

The new situation will find India, which will only have to rely on the United States (which it has avoided like fire for years). The Chinese and Americans will resume the struggle for influence in Central Asia, where significant geopolitical changes could occur. In the last few days, there has been a shift of power from Pakistan, where Imran Khan lost his seat as prime minister due to a vote of no confidence. Khan pursued a pro-Chinese foreign policy. As a result, he also took a positive stance toward the Kremlin (due to the Moscow-Beijing tactical partnership). However, he lost the support of the army that exercises de facto power in Pakistan. This could have happened due to American actions, thanks to which the Pakistani military decided to reopen cooperation with the USA. Importantly, Imran Khan was a fairly secular, reasonable prime minister with enormous public support who managed in a rather crazy place full of radicals (I recommend the earlier but very up-to-date analysis from 2018: “Pakistan. The enemy of geopolitical hell?”) [Pol.: “Pakistan. Wroga geopolitycznego piekła?”] The country has much more significant problems with maintaining order in an ethnically heterogeneous country and extinguishing any animosities, which may also significantly impact world security because Pakistan is a country with nuclear weapons. The situation in the region is additionally complicated by the fact that regained the Taliban, who, after stabilizing their power, will have ambitions to destabilize and consume the entire region. Importantly, it could not be omitted.

Lonely Armenians would find themselves in a complicated situation in Transcaucasia. In turn, the Georgians could win something for themselves in the ensuing confusion (Abkhazia, South Ossetia), especially if a Chechen or Dagestan rebellion broke out in Russia. With Russia’s passivity, the Turks could realize their dream and create a Turkish-Azerbaijani axis reaching the Caspian Sea, where are the riches in the form of natural gas. It would also give Ankara access to the culturally close Central Asian states. However, the multitude of fronts and involvement in many other directions would instead prevent Erdogan from playing a decisive role in that region.

In the event of the neutralization of Russia, Poland could gain the most. We are facing a historic opportunity that was created without our participation. And regardless of our actions, the current of events pushes us in a direction favorable for Poland. Warsaw has become a partner, ally, and mainstay for Kyiv. For the first time since the 17^th century, Ukrainians see Russians as their deadly enemy, Germans as an untrustworthy partner, and Poles as their greatest allies. On the social level, Poles have already won. If Ukraine survives, it will be possible to build a Polish-Ukrainian political partnership and bring Ukraine into the EU and NATO — in which we should take an active and even play a key part. The Warsaw-Kyiv bloc would be a heavy-hitter, tough enough to begin thinking about gathering other countries in the region around itself. The Balts or Romania could provide a political base that would allow them to co-decide about the European Union. The Intermarium block — which Józef Piłsudski dreamed of — would have a chance to come into being and play an important, equal role in shaping Europe. This, of course, is the most optimistic variant — and it is quite possible.

There may also be huge threats. The internal chaos in Russia can be extremely dangerous for Moscow itself and its surrounding states (especially in the context of nuclear weapons). At the same time, it is worth noting that if the Chinese failed to build their independence and prosperity, they could fall into enormous economic turbulence, which would radicalize their political class’s actions. Internal social pressure — triggered by crises ‑ could push the Chinese elites to do what Vladimir Putin has now chosen. In both cases, we are dealing with a similar cultural mentality, an autocratic system, and a smoldering chauvinism that can be easily fueled. Thus, the Beijing authorities may also seek solutions in military expansion.

However, speculation should be regarded only as one among many different contingencies so far into the future. This allows us to hope that the world will cope with the upcoming challenges better than in this rather pessimistic scenario.

 Challenges for Poland

In such an outlined reality, Warsaw’s authorities will have to make efforts to take full advantage of the current favorable situation. From the perspective of our national interest, Ukraine cannot lose and fall into the Russian sphere of influence. If this happened, the Polish state would be under pressure from the Russians and the threat of war in the coming years. We would have to concentrate on defensive thinking, which would limit our political possibilities. Moreover, Poland would become even more dependent on its allies in terms of security. This, in turn, would make us dependent on the political level, so Warsaw would have much more limited room for maneuver when it comes to pursuing its own interests. Ones that the allies would not have to care about.

The economic aspects should also not be overlooked. The takeover of power by Moscow over Ukraine would mean the migration of another million refugees to Poland. We would bear the main burden of supporting the arrivals, and the possible financial aid from the EU for this purpose would be another tool for putting pressure on Warsaw authorities. In addition, it is worth remembering that while our labor market may absorb, for example, a million or two additional workers — which would be beneficial for the economy — with 4-5 million refugees, the Polish state could be overburdened. Also on the administrative and financial level (allowances) or in such trivial matters as accommodation and meals. Similar consequences may result not only from the defeat of Ukraine but also from a prolonged, long-lasting conflict.

If the Russians suffered a defeat in Ukraine and Kyiv remained outside the sphere of Moscow’s influence, several options would open up for Poland. First of all, it should be ensured that the authorities from Kyiv perceive Poland as its most critical partner. Geography itself can help, as the most convenient communication routes from Ukraine to Western Europe run through Poland. Warsaw would have to become the most important supporter of Ukraine joining the EU and NATO. This is because Germany cannot be allowed to play the role of a country inviting Kyiv to the community and the North Atlantic Pact.

Polish-Ukrainian economic negotiations, which should take place even before Ukraine joins the EU, would be critical. Then Polish business and interests could spill over the Dnieper River much earlier than Western economic giants. This would give some advantages.

Poland has sufficient capital, strengths, and arguments to be an important pillar in Ukraine’s reconstruction program.

It would be essential — in any scenario — to build a sufficiently large and modern Armed Forces. The Polish land forces with only four divisions would be too modest if Ukraine lost. On the other hand, the defeat of the Russian Federation would have to involve giving up its aggressive attitude towards NATO, but it could destabilize the huge state internally. In such conditions, the Polish Army could be a political tool providing security guarantees to weaker or war-weakened countries in the region (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Belarus, Ukraine). This, in turn, leads to the conclusion that the Polish Armed Forces should be prepared for various scenarios. Maintaining an appropriate balance and maintaining and even increasing the offensive potential could be of key importance to the interests of the Polish state.

It is imperative to simplify the tax system and introduce a business-friendly state program! The recent changes in this area have devastated the country’s image and the government, even though the assumptions of the so-called “Polish Deal” [ Pol.: “Polski Ład”]  were correct in principle.

Despite the increasingly complex requirements and procedures for running a business, our economy is developing quite well. And now, we can also use the potential of Ukrainians coming to Poland. Of course, this should not be done in such a way as to differentiate the legal situation of Poles and Ukrainians. There is need for systemic reforms.

 The challenges for Europe

The issue of the challenges facing the European Union and Europe as such is raised by many experts and politicians. These include, among others:

– management of refugees from Ukraine,

– limiting or even ceasing to import energy resources from Russia,

– cutting Russia out of European supply chains,

– ensuring the security of the continent by increasing the military potential of NATO and EU countries,

– filling the gap in the supply of agricultural-food products from Russia and Ukraine (anticipated problems with harvesting in Ukraine due to the protracted war).

All of these are highly pressing topics that require immediate action. However, Europe may face even more dangerous processes in the medium to long term.

We would like to remind you that Ukraine is not only Europe’s breadbasket but also the leading exporter of agricultural products to North Africa and the Middle East. Consequently, if these regions are affected by food shortages, resulting in a massive increase in food prices, many countries may encounter a repeat of the so-called “Arab Spring.” Social revolts, coups, and, consequently, even civil wars. Chaos in the Middle East and North Africa could have a huge impact on Europe’s security — on many levels. Through the Suez Canal, energy resources from the Persian Gulf reach Europe (which may soon become necessary due to the suspension of supplies from Russia). Through the Suez Canal, products and semi-finished products from China go to Europe. Finally, many migrants from Africa and Asia travel to the Old Continent across the Mediterranean Sea.

At the moment, the food market is still partially based on last season’s stocks. However, these stocks will run out quite soon. The lack of a harvest in Ukraine (which is one of the largest producers of wheat and oilseeds) will be a problem for that country and a large part of the world.

At the same time, “food” can be used politically. It is possible to imagine a situation where, for example, Turkey would block sea supplies of Russian agricultural products to Syria. Especially since Recep Erdogan is not a friend of Bashar Assad and would gladly participate in the partitions of the Syrian state or at least place a government in Damascus that would favor Turkey. The situation could be similar in Libya, where the civil war continues. Already, Lebanon is on the brink of collapse, where the explosion in the Beirut port deprived the country of its warehouses receiving goods from abroad. Egypt, which has become one of the largest food importers in the region, will face a difficult situation.

In other words, the Middle Eastern and North African powder kegs were reconnected under the smoldering fuse. Meanwhile, the United States may not be as much involved in the region as before, especially since the rivalry between Russia and China has gained new dynamics. In this context, regional players, i.e., Turkey, Israel, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, will be responsible for the events in the Middle East. The clash of the interests of these countries may introduce chaos in Syria and Iraq comparable to that in 2014 when we were dealing with a rapid expansion of ISIS and the risk of a possible collapse of the authorities of Damascus and Baghdad.

Potential chaos in the Middle East will have a huge impact on Europe. In this context, the countries from the south of the EU (France, Spain, Italy or Greece) should create a bloc responsible for stabilizing the above-described regions (and, in a way, step into the shoes of the US). The problem is that all these countries are consumed by enormous internal problems … Which is not optimistic.

 Summary

With all this in mind, one thing seems certain. The defeat of Ukraine would be unfavorable for NATO, the EU, and individual countries (such as the USA or Poland). If Moscow subjugated Kyiv, the Kremlin authorities could exert military pressure on the West and increase their influence in North Africa and the Middle East — because Russia would control a large part of the agricultural-food sector (the combined potential of Russia and Ukraine in this range). The Turks, who are strongly involved in the affairs of the Levant and Libya, also understand this.

Moreover, a scenario in which the war in Ukraine would be prolonged would be very unfavorable for the countries of the Old Continent. The chaos in the Middle East and North Africa would economically destabilize the rich countries of the European Union (import of raw materials and goods), politically, and humanely (refugees). Of course, each subsequent day of the war would also hit the vitality of the Russian Federation. It would negatively affect the countries bordering Ukraine.

For all these reasons, an immediate victory would be the most favorable scenario for Russia. For the West as well — but a victory in this case for Ukraine.

All this can lead to the conclusion that the West will be bolder and more openly supporting the still struggling Ukrainians. Especially in the context that even the occupation of Ukraine by the Russians may not stabilize the situation. The Ukrainians could probably continue the sabotage-partisan struggle.

In other words, Russia’s actions do not give the West a choice. In my opinion, one should expect ever bolder responses aimed at tasking the Russian side with a painful military and economic defeat. Which is what we should wish for.

However, it should be remembered that a possible positive end to the war in Ukraine will not mean peace in the long run. The Russian Federation will be prone to nervous, and perhaps even desperate, actions in the coming years — even before an internal collapse occurs. This — in the event of no success in Ukraine — would be closer because a failed war would undermine Vladimir Putin’s leadership, which seems to be one of the most critical factors in terms of the stability of the Russian Federation.

Krzysztof Wojczal

Sources:

https://businessinsider.com.pl/gospodarka/inflacja-w-rosji-poszybowala-przez-sankcje-rzad-podal-nowe-dane/lj3dx45

https://www.rp.pl/gospodarka/art19090471-rosja-z-najwiekszymi-rezerwami-zlota-i-walut-w-historii

https://wid.world/country/russian-federation/

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/04/12/richest-3-russians-hold-90-of-countrys-financial-assets-study-a65213   [Accessed on July 22, 2020]

The post The Russian Federation has already lost — the question is, how much damage will it still do? (Analysis) appeared first on Polonia Institute.

EUROPE

THE WAR

1.  Putin’s Showdown with Ukraine on Crimea and Donbass

Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Talks Slow Down as Both Sides Arrive at Heart of the Matter: Territory Disputes

Russian President Vladimir Putin Tuesday clarified his stance on Crimea and Donbass, the disputed territories on the Russia-Ukraine border area.

He appears to be unhappy with Ukraine’s ambiguous stance on the separatist or disputed territories and clearly stated that Russia is demanding Ukraine recognize Crimea as Russian and so-called Donbass republics as independent.

Putin emphasized that these two points are the key topics that the two sides have made no progress on, Russian state media RT reported.

The ceasefire talks “returned to a deadlock,” he stated at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Russia’s Far East.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/putin-showdown-with-ukraine-on-crimea-and-donbas_4399246.html

2.  Slovakia’s decision to gift S-300 batteries to Ukraine ends in domestic upheaval

While the small Eastern European country of only 5 million might be seriously lagging behind in modernizing its own armed forces, it is certainly one of the front-runners in arming its war-torn neighbor.

The Slovak government’s decision to donate its own Russian-made Soviet-era, surface-to-air missile system (SAM) to its eastern neighbor has generated praise and positive headlines internationally, despite the fact that there is very little domestic public support for dragging the small country into the war between the two giants in their neighborhood.

Slovakia’s decision to gift S-300 batteries to Ukraine ends in domestic upheaval

3.  Ukraine’s Neo-Nazi Azov Fighters Accuse Russia of Chemical Weapons Attack

The founder of the Azov Regiment, a neo-Nazi militia formally integrated into the armed forces of Ukraine, accused Russia on Monday of using chemical weapons in Mariupol, a southern port city now the focal point of the war between the two countries.

Andriy Biletsky – described as “a white supremacist former football [soccer] hooligan” who founded and now leads the explicitly neo-Nazi fighters – accused Russia of dropping “warfare chemicals” on fighters in Mariupol but failing to do significant damage, reportedly injuring three people.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/04/12/ukraines-neo-nazi-azov-fighters-accuse-russia-of-chemical-weapons-attack/

4.  US unable to confirm Russia’s use of chemical weapons in Ukraine: Pentagon

The Pentagon said it could not confirm the use of chemical weapons by Russian forces in Ukraine “at this time,” a senior US defense official said Tuesday.

“We’re looking at this as best we can, but we’re not in a position to confirm those reports,” the official said when asked about reports that Russia may have used chemical weapons in Ukraine’s Mariupol.

“The biggest challenge is we’re not there, and we don’t know if anything was used. These are difficult things to prove even when you are more proximate,” the official added.

The US official estimated that Russia now has “just above” 80 percent of the combat power it had assembled for its war on Ukraine.

And Russian forces are now being forced to stay on paved roads with the spring weather instead of using frozen lakes or ponds.

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/04/12/US-unable-to-confirm-Russia-s-use-of-chemical-weapons-in-Ukraine-Pentagon

5.  Russian gas cut could lead to mass shutdown of European factories and companies, says Czech analyst

The closure of Russian gas pipelines could lead to the shutting down of factories and companies, rising unemployment, and a drastic economic impact across the Czech Republic as well as much of Europe, according to analyst Jiří Gavor.

[…]“Europe can’t find an adequate replacement this year. It would mean a bit of a transition to a war economy. It’s not just heating. First of all, we would really have to close some industrial companies sooner rather than later,” said Gavor to Echo24 news outlet.

‘War economy’ – Russian gas cut could lead to mass shutdown of European factories and companies, says Czech analyst

6.  After coal, the EU faces an uphill battle to ban Russian oil and gas

Upon seeing the horrors of Bucha, member states decided to self-impose a 120-day deadline to completely phase out imports of Russian coal. The ground-breaking move was meant to complement previous rounds of sanctions and help cripple the Kremlin’s war machine: the sale of fossil fuel represents Russia’s main source of revenue, contributing to over 40% of the federal budget

But while the announcement from Brussels received initial praise, it was quickly eclipsed by the inaction taken against Moscow’s two most profitable exports: oil and gas.

Last year, EU purchases of Russian coal amounted to €5.16 billion, a figure that pales in comparison to the €71 billion spent on petroleum oils and the €16.3 spent on gas.

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/04/12/after-coal-the-eu-faces-an-uphill-battle-to-ban-russian-oil-and-gas

7.  Rocketing Prices Test Europe’s Political Resolve in Confrontation With Russia

Surging food and fuel prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are fueling discontent across Europe, testing Western democracies’ political resilience.

[…]From France to Spain, Germany and Greece, a combination of near-stagnant wages and rising prices is sparking protests and piling pressure on governments fragilized by years of unpopular Covid-19 restrictions.

The darkening mood raises questions about how much European voters are willing to tolerate the economic costs of what looks likely to become a protracted confrontation with Russia.

Russia accounts for around 40% of the European Union’s imports of natural gas, a key source of energy for the bloc. It also supplies around a quarter of the bloc’s oil imports. While supplies of both have continued to flow from Russia, their prices have risen sharply.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/rocketing-prices-test-europes-political-resolve-in-confrontation-with-russia-11649759216

8.  Peak of German prosperity is ‘probably over’ — CDU chief Friedrich Merz prepares for economic decline

“The conflict will make us poorer. Society will have to endure it,” says the opposition leader in the German Bundestag, Friedrich Merz

The opposition leader in the German Bundestag and head of the CDU party, Friedrich Merz, has predicted a drop in Germany’s economic prosperity, insisting the country’s economic peak “is probably over.”

“We will do badly,” claimed Merz during an appearance on the ARD television program, Report from Berlin.

“The peak of our prosperity – at least for a certain time – is probably over,” he added, warning that politicians can only mitigate the expected poor economic development to a limited extent.

“We will no longer be able to afford one or the other. That will be the case for a certain time,” Merz claimed.

Peak of German prosperity is ‘probably over’ — CDU chief Friedrich Merz prepares for economic decline

9.  Breitbart Business Daily: The Rumble and the Ruble—How the West’s Sanctions on Russia Strengthen the Ruble and Threaten Globalization

Russia is likely to demand ruble payments not only for natural gas sent to Europe but also for oil and food commodities, such as wheat and corn. This will increase global demand for the ruble.

[…]That is likely to ultimately lead to strengthening demand for Russian government bonds from Russian banks and exporting countries.

[…] This will not just be about financial flows. This will change real flows of goods and commodities.

[…] What we have described here is the destruction of globalization and the fragmentation of the global economy into competitive but somewhat isolated trading groups. This will likely be uncomfortable for those who benefitted the most from the system that had been in place, particularly western financial elites and corporations who became dependent on Chinese manufacturing. If China refocuses on either exports to Russia or its internal market, its demand for dollars and supply of goods to the U.S. will weaken. Jobs will have to be re-shored, domestic factory production restarted, and domestic investment grown. So this could turn out to be a great time for American workers.

Much of this has been brewing beneath the surface of world events for some time. The Russian invasion of Ukraine may turn out to be the catalyst that gets the engines of change running at higher gear.

https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2022/04/08/breitbart-business-daily-the-rumble-and-the-ruble-how-the-wests-sanctions-on-russia-strengthen-the-ruble-and-threaten-globalization/

10.  What happens if Russia defaults on its debt

Russia may be on the throes of a sovereign external default, at least that is what S&P appears to believe. The issue arose after Russian dollar debt had fallen due last week but the US had blocked the use of Russian dollar funds with US banks. This put Russia in a liquidity crunch.

As a result, Russia has offered to pay the dues in equivalent rubles deposited in the account but S&P still calls it a default. From Russia’s side, they have refused to accept it as a default since it was artificially caused by US sanctions. Russia has clarified that it is willing to pay, but its hands are tied by the sanctions. Russia is planning to pursue legal options. In this uncertain scenario, let us look at what Russian default is all about and what it could mean?

[…]

Is it then about willingness to pay?

The argument is a lot more nuanced. Russia has the ability to pay as it receives billions of dollars in revenue from the export of oil and gas. Also, while its dollars with foreign banks may be frozen, much of its reserves in Russia and other friendly countries are still technically available. Clearly, US Treasury is trying to arm-twist Russia with a forced default, which Russia is not willing to concede; and rightly so.

The term default, itself, is loosely defined. IMF gives the closest definition by defining default as the failure to pay principal, interest or other amounts due after the grace period of 30 days has elapsed. There are also technical defaults that can be remedied and it remains to be seen if this will be classified by the courts as a regular default or technical default. However, Russia has firmly dismissed talks of default calling it an artificial creation of the US with no grounds for a real default.

https://www.indiainfoline.com/article/general-blog/what-happens-if-russia-defaults-on-its-debt-122041300172_1.html

11.  Poland to ban Russian coal imports, saying it “can’t wait any longer for EU to act”

The Polish government has approved measures to block the import of coal from Russia. It admits that there are “legal doubts” over a unilateral embargo by a European Union member state, but says that it “cannot wait any longer” for Brussels to act.

Poland has long been weaning itself off Russian gas, with Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki recently declaring that the country would this year be “independent from Russian gas for the first time in decades”.

Poland to ban Russian coal imports, saying it “can’t wait any longer for EU to act”

EUROPE – OTHER MATTERS

12.  France’s Macron and Far-Right Le Pen Lead in First Round of Presidential Election

President Emmanuel Macron and far-right leader Marine Le Pen led the first round of France’s presidential election, according to projections, setting the stage for a closely contested runoff amid public frustration over high-inflation and immigration.

Mr. Macron garnered 28.2% of the estimated vote ahead of Ms. Le Pen with 22.9%. The two will now face off in an April 24 rematch of the 2017 election that will test whether Mr. Macron can rekindle the coalition of disaffected socialists and conservatives that fueled his landslide victory five years ago.

Sunday’s vote illustrated how France’s political landscape has grown increasingly polarized since Mr. Macron took office. Candidates for the socialist and conservative parties only garnered a combined 6.7% of the estimated vote, compared with 26% in the last elections, while contenders from the far-right and far-left won support from more than half of the electorate.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/macron-faces-tough-challenge-from-le-pen-as-france-votes-in-tight-election-11649583003

13.  Just 48 hours after Orbán reelected, EU launches retaliatory sanction proceedings against Hungary

Hungary says the EU’s sanctions move is punishment for the conservative election victory, with Brussels likely to cut millions in funding to the country

The Commission was given the green light to proceed with the withholding of funds earlier this year when the European Court of Justice held the punitive measures were proportionate and lawful.

“We’ve carefully assessed the result of these questions,” von der Leyen said, responding to a question about the Commission’s latest position. “Our conclusion is we have to move on [to] the next step.”

The dominant left-liberal mainstream has long sought to punish Hungary and Poland over ideological differences related to migration, LGBT issues, family values, and border security. One of the key players aligned against Hungary, the billionaire oligarch George Soros — who backs a well-funded web of NGOs, media and lobbyists — wrote in 2020 about his desire to punish Hungary using a sanctions mechanism.

“I call on the EU to make Hungary a test case,” Soros wrote in a statement urging Brussels to use sanctions

Just 48 hours after Orbán reelected, EU launches retaliatory sanction proceedings against Hungary

14.  Foreigners responsible for huge share of crime, according to latest German data

Non-German suspects continue to make up a huge share of criminal suspects, especially for serious crimes like assault and rape

Foreigners responsible for huge share of crime, according to latest German data

BRAVE NEW WORLD

15.  Vaxxed By Machines, Tracked By Machines: Humanity To Be Augmented One Cell At A Time

Moderna’s co-founder created a quantum dot tattoo to track the vaxxed. The company is now using AI to generate endless mRNA jabs. Welcome to Transhumanism, Inc.

[…]

Connecting the Quantum Dots

The “spiky patch” quantum dot tattoo was developed by MIT scientists Dr. Robert Langer and Dr. Ana Jaklenec. Their research was published in the prestigious Science Translational Medicine. I first wrote about this insidious project for ColdType in an article entitled “Bill Gates: Chipping the Hand of God,” published May of 2020, and again last year in my piece “Reaching for the Mark of the Beast.”

The quantum dot tattoo is to be administered using a microneedle patch in tandem with any given vaccination. Fluorescent nanoparticles are placed in a specific configuration—a sort of QR code embedded in the flesh—which can be scanned with infrared light on a modified smartphone. Experimentation on lab mice indicates the quantum dot tattoo will last for up to five years. The project’s leader openly stated that their goal is “widespread adoption” in humans.

This is not some “laptop conspiracy.” It was covered extensively in 2019 by Smithsonian Magazine, Scientific American, Stat News, MIT News, Rice University News, and elsewhere. Despite the widespread coverage, “fact-checkers” across the board have deliberately concealed this reality by focusing on claims that “microchip implants” are being used to track vaccination, often with no mention of the actual quantum dot project.

https://joebot.substack.com/p/vaxxed-by-machines-tracked-by-machines?s=r

The post PI Newsletter #189 appeared first on Polonia Institute.

Opinions expressed in the articles or videos do not represent the views of Polonia Institute

UKRAINE-RUSSIA CONFLICT

1.  United Nations Votes to Suspend Russia From Human Rights Council

The United Nations on Thursday voted to suspend Russia from the U.N. Human Rights Council following reports alleging Russian forces carried out war crimes in recent days.

Ninety-three countries voted in favor of booting Russia from the Council, while 24 voted against it and 58 abstained from voting. China, Iran, Syria, and Belarus were among those who voted against the measure.

Russia is now the second country to be removed from the Human Rights Council. In 2011, Libya was suspended in response to former strongman Moammar Gadhafi’s actions during the Arab Spring protests, which turned into a movement to overthrow his government.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/united-nations-votes-to-suspend-russia-from-human-rights-council_4389223.html

2.  Russia will defend its interests, Kremlin says after UN human rights body suspension

Russia will continue to defend its interests, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday after the United Nations suspended Moscow’s membership in its Human Rights Council over the invasion of Ukraine.

[…] The Kremlin spokesman conceded that Russian troops have suffered “significant losses” in Ukraine.

“We have suffered significant losses of troops. This is a huge tragedy for us,” he said, without specifying a death toll.

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/04/07/Russia-will-defend-its-interests-Kremlin-says-after-UN-human-rights-body-suspension

3.  Russia says Ukraine gave ‘unacceptable’ draft peace proposal

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Thursday that Kyiv had presented Moscow with a draft peace deal that contained “unacceptable” elements, but that Russia would nonetheless continue talks and press to secure its own requirements.

https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/russia-says-ukraine-gave-unacceptable-draft-peace-proposal-122040800038_1.html

4.  Ukraine Calls for More Arms as It Girds for Heavier Fighting Against Russia in the East

Ukrainian officials called for more weapons to fight Russia as both sides mobilize forces in the east for what are expected to be some of the fiercest battles of the war so far.

At a meeting of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in Brussels on Thursday, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba underscored his country’s need for a sustainable supply of arms to counter Russia’s offensive in the eastern Donbas area.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-calls-for-tougher-sanctions-more-arms-to-fend-off-russia-in-donbas-11649326575

5.  Zelensky trying to provoke conflict between NATO and Russia: Sergei Lavrov

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov did not rule out that Ukraine President Vladimir Zelensky is trying to provoke a conflict between Russia and NATO, as evidenced by his “militaristic frenzy”.

https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/zelensky-trying-to-provoke-conflict-between-nato-and-russia-sergei-lavrov-122030500683_1.html

6.  Senate Votes to End Normal Trade Relations, Oil Imports With Russia

The Senate on Thursday morning voted to end normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus and to bar Russian oil imports into the United States in response to the nations’ invasion of Ukraine.

The bill to end normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus passed in a 100–0 vote, a rare event in increasingly divided Washington. The bill to ban Russian imports of oil also was approved in a 100–0 vote.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/senate-votes-to-end-normal-trade-relations-oil-imports-with-russia_4389472.html?utm_source=pushengage

7.  NATO Chief Says Sweden, Finland Could ‘Easily Join’ Its Ranks If They Apply

If Finland and Sweden decide to apply for NATO membership, all allies of the defensive alliance would quickly welcome both Nordic countries, said NATO’s top civilian official.

“It’s for them to decide of course, but if they apply, I expect that all allies will welcome them,” Jens Stoltenberg told a Wednesday news conference in Brussels. “We know that they can easily join this alliance if they decide to apply.”

https://www.theepochtimes.com/nato-chief-says-sweden-finland-could-easily-join-its-ranks-if-they-apply_4389833.html

8.  US scraps missile test to avoid Russian ‘misinterpretation’: report

The test launch of the Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile was canceled over concerns Russian President Vladimir Putin would view the move as escalatory, Defense Department officials told NBC.

“The Department of the Air Force recently cancelled the routinely planned test flight of an LGM-30G Minuteman III missile,” Pentagon deputy press secretary Todd Breasseale said in a statement. “The launch had been previously delayed due to an overabundance of caution to avoid misinterpretation or miscommunication during the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine.”

US scraps missile test to avoid Russian ‘misinterpretation’: report

9.  EU proposing new sanctions, Russia more prudent in food export

The Russia-Ukraine conflict continued on Wednesday as the European Union (EU) is proposing its fifth sanction package against Russia.

On Tuesday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that the package, which will be discussed and given the final approval by EU ambassadors on Wednesday, includes bans on coal imports worth 4 billion euros a year and on four Russian banks.

She added that the European Commission is also pushing for bans on Russian ships entering EU ports, on Russian and Belarusian road transport operators, and on imports of oil, wood and cement, seafood and alcohol from Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday said that Russia will be more prudent this year in exporting food, especially to countries that are pursuing a hostile policy towards Russia.

https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/eu-proposing-new-sanctions-russia-more-prudent-in-food-export-122040600399_1.html

10.  Japan Adds Luxury Goods to Russia Sanctions as It Takes in Ukrainian Refugees

Luxury products are among a list of items banned by the Japanese government for export to Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

Announced on March 29, the ban went into effect on April 5.

Nineteen luxury products, including perfume, fine artwork, and high-end cars, are now part of an expanding list of banned exports to Russia that also includes weapons, military-grade tools, carbon fiber, and general semiconductors.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/japan-adds-luxury-goods-to-russia-sanctions-as-it-takes-in-ukrainian-refugees_4381398.html

11.  US sanctions target Putin’s daughters amid belief they help hide his wealth

Putin‘s daughter Katerina Vladimirovna Tikhonova is a tech executive whose work supports the Russian government and its defense industry, according to details in the U.S. sanctions package announced on Wednesday.

His other daughter Maria Vladimirovna Vorontsova leads government-funded programs that have received billions of dollars from the Kremlin toward genetics research, and are personally overseen by Putin, the United States said.

[…] On Thursday, the Kremlin said it was bewildered by the U.S. decision, and described the move against the daughters as part of a broader Western frenzy against Russia.

The sanctions announced Wednesday also include the daughter and wife of Russian foreign affairs minister Sergei Lavrov. The U.S. also banned Americans from investing in Russia, and targeted Russian financial institutions and Kremlin officials, in response to what President Joe Biden condemned as Russian “atrocities” in Ukraine.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220407-us-sanctions-target-putin-s-daughters-amid-belief-they-help-hide-his-wealth

12.  ‘The Space Foundation’ Erases Name of First Man in Space Because He Was Russian

Soviet Cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin is widely regarded as a hero in Ukraine, sparking confusion of the move

A space industry conference named for the first man to travel to outer space has erased his name from their title due to his Russian ethnicity, joining in with the anti-Russian sentiment displayed by several other organizations since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a non-NATO nation. 

The nonprofit Space Foundation erased the name of Soviet Cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin, the first man to enter outer space, from their “Yuri’s Night” space conference. The conference was given the stale new corporate name of “A Celebration of Space: Discover What’s Next,” citing his Gagarin’s ethnicity and “current world events.”

[…] “The focus of this fundraising event remains the same — to celebrate human achievements in space while inspiring the next generation to reach for the stars,” a web posting from The Space Foundation, that was later deleted following public ridicule, read announcing the name change, which it blamed on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Ironically, Yuri Gagarin never actually represented Russia, considering that nation, like Ukraine, was held under the rule of the Soviet Communists for his entire life, and was part of the USSR. Like in Russia, Gagarin is considered a hero in Ukraine and is widely admired. In 2011, a Ukrainian stamp even commemorated the 50th anniversary of his first flight into space.

‘The Space Foundation’ Erases Name of First Man in Space Because He Was Russian

13.  Ruble becomes best-performing currency in March; soars to 83 to the dollar

The ruble appreciated to 83 to the dollar intraday on Tuesday against a record low of 139 on March 7.

The ruble has recouped most of its losses and become the top-performing currency globally. It continues to gain and is up 60 per cent against the US dollar from its lows in the first week of March.

The ruble appreciated to 83 to the dollar intraday on Tuesday against a record low of 139 on March 7. Thanks to the recent rally, the ruble is only about 10 per cent lower than what it was before the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24. The ruble was trading at around 76 before the invasion, according to the data from Bloomberg.

https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/ruble-becomes-best-performing-currency-in-march-soars-to-83-to-the-dollar-122032901631_1.html

14.  Zelenskyy Says Post-war Ukraine Will Emulate Israel, Won’t Be ‘Liberal, European’

Soldiers in ‘cinemas, supermarkets, and people with weapons’ is Ukraine’s future, Zelenskyy tells reporters, as the country’s leaders begin to imagine what a precariously post-war Ukraine might look like

Ukraine will become a “‘big Israel’ with its own face,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared on Tuesday, indicating that his country intends to emulate the Israeli security state in the wake of Russia’s invasion.

European Union and NATO member-state Czechia has warned citizens who express support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including on social media, they could face prison.

The Supreme Public Prosecutor’s Office considers it necessary to inform citizens that the current situation associated with the Russian Federation’s attack on Ukraine may have implications for their freedom of expression,” warned Czechia’s Attorney-General, Igor Stříž, in an official press release.

“[F]reedom of speech also has its limits in a democratic state governed by the rule of law,” the official asserted, explaining that anyone who “publicly (including at demonstrations, on the Internet or on social networks) agreed (accepted or supported the Russian Federation’s attacks on Ukraine) or expressed support or praised the leaders of the Russian Federation in this regard, they could also face criminal liability under certain conditions”, citing sections of the criminal code making it a crime to approve a criminal offence or deny, question, approve or justify genocide.

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2022/03/01/czechs-warned-they-could-jailed-supporting-russia/

16.  Did Putin’s 2007 Munich Speech Predict the Ukraine Crisis? [Commentary]

This article appeared in National Interest (Online) on January 24, 2022.

Putin’s Munich speech [at the Munich Security Conference] was an important diplomatic warning to the United States and its allies that Russia’s patience with NATO’s encroachment was at an end.

NATO governments and Western news media are extremely agitated by Russian president Vladimir Putin’s recent demands that NATO provide guarantees on several security issues. Specifically, the Kremlin wants assurances that the alliance will reduce the scope of its military presence in Eastern Europe and will never offer membership to Ukraine. Amazingly, both the substance and tone of Moscow’s position seem to have surprised U.S. and NATO officials. However, indications that Russian leaders are alarmed and angry at NATO’s growing encroachment on Russia’s security zone have been building for years. Indeed, Boris Yeltsin complained about the first stage of NATO expansion that brought Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary into the alliance in 1998. Moscow’s objections have grown louder and more insistent with each subsequent provocation.

An especially pointed warning came when Putin addressed the annual Munich Security Conference on March 10, 2007. He took direct aim at the notion so popular in the United States during the 1990s and early 2000s that the international system was unipolar and that Washington’s power was unchallengeable. “However one might embellish this term, at the end of the day it refers to one type of situation, namely one centre of authority, one centre of force, one centre of decision‐​making. It is a world in which there is one master, one sovereign.”

Putin emphatically rejected that model. Implicitly referring to the U.S.-led military interventions in the Balkans and Iraq, he stated: “Today we are witnessing an almost uncontained hyper use of force — military force — in international relations, force that is plunging the world into an abyss of permanent conflicts.” “And of course,” Putin continued, “this is extremely dangerous. It results in the fact that no one feels safe. I want to emphasise this — no one feels safe!”

It was when he moved on from such general observations to focus on Russia’s relations with NATO, however, that Putin’s objections and warnings became emphatic. “NATO has put its frontline forces on our borders,” although as yet, we “do not react to these actions at all.” NATO expansion, he stated, “represents a serious provocation that reduces the level of mutual trust. And we have the right to ask: against whom is this expansion intended? And what happened to the assurances our western partners made after the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact?”

Continue reading here:

https://www.cato.org/commentary/did-putins-2007-munich-speech-predict-ukraine-crisis

17.  TRANSCRIPT: 2007 Putin Speech and the Following Discussion at the Munich Conference on Security Policy

TRANSCRIPT: 2007 Putin Speech and the Following Discussion at the Munich Conference on Security Policy

18.  The Speech In Which Putin Told Us Who He Was [Opinion]

It wasn’t really Putin’s excoriation of the United States for hypocrisy after its invasion of Iraq that was notable; this was pretty much mainstream German, French, and much American thinking. The real moment of revelation was his broader conclusion that the U.S.-led liberal order, a.k.a. the Free World, was of no interest or value to Russia.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/18/putin-speech-wake-up-call-post-cold-war-order-liberal-2007-00009918

19.  Invasion of Ukraine ‘Totally ’: Gen. Michael Flynn [Opinion]

The current Russian invasion of Ukraine could have been avoided, and it demonstrates a failure that the U.S. leadership couldn’t effectively communicate with its Russian counterpart, according to Gen. Michael Flynn, a retired Army lieutenant general who briefly served as the National Security Advisor to former President Donald Trump.

[…] “It really goes back to 1994, what was called the Budapest Accords, in Budapest, Hungary, at the end of the Cold War,” said Flynn.

[…] The Budapest Memo (pdf) didn’t mention the NATO expansion. However, Western leaders had promised no NATO eastward expansion throughout the process of German unification in 1990 and on into 1991. The most famous one is then-Secretary of State James Baker’s “not one inch eastward” assurance about NATO expansion in his meeting with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev on February 9, 1990.

[…]The war also shows the Biden administration’s failure to communicate with Russia in an effective way to prevent the escalation of the Ukraine situation, said Flynn.

“War is a failure of policy and diplomacy,” said Flynn. “Anytime you see states, nations, nation-states, at war with each other, it’s because there’s a failure to communicate some way somehow. And that’s what happened.”

Flynn said Russian President Vladimir Putin kept saying Ukraine shouldn’t join NATO and it should declare neutrality,…

https://www.theepochtimes.com/invasion-of-ukraine-totally-avoidable-gen-michael-flynn_4387891.html

WORLD

20.  China demands religion teaches socialism and Communist directives

Other faith beliefs are part of ‘illegal activities

Communist authorities in China have banished religious teachings that fail to teach to believers “socialism and [Chinese Communist Party] directives and [instill] in them the love of the party and socialism.”

“It is necessary to guide the religious circles to deeply and systematically study the Party’s religious work theories, principles and policies,” the party leaders have insisted.

People also should understand that non-sinicized religion simply is part of “illegal religious activities.”

China demands religion teaches socialism and Communist directives

PANDEMIC

21.  Newly Released Docs: Pfizer Had to Hire 1,800 Additional Employees in Early 2021 to Process ‘Large Increase’ in Vaccine Adverse Events

Pfizer hired 1,800 additional full-time employees in the first half of 2021 to deal with “the large increase” of adverse reactions to its COVID vaccine, newly released secret documents reveal. The Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine was made available under the Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) on Dec. 11, 2020. By February of 2021, the company was seeing so many safety signals, including in pregnant and breastfeeding mothers, it had to immediately hire 600 employees to process the data.

[…] The FDA released 10,000 pages of Pfizer-BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine review documents on April 1, pursuant to a court order in January that forced the company to expedite its process of making the information available to the public.

Newly Released Docs: Pfizer Had to Hire 1,800 Additional Employees in Early 2021 to Process ‘Large Increase’ in Vaccine Adverse Events

22.  Counties With Highest Vaccination Rates See More COVID-19 Cases Than Least Vaccinated

U.S. counties with the highest rates of vaccination against COVID-19 are currently experiencing more cases than those with the lowest vaccination rates, according to data collected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

The 500 counties where 62 to 95 percent of the population has been vaccinated detected more than 75 cases per 100,000 residents on average in the past week. Meanwhile, the 500 counties where 11 to 40 percent of the population has been vaccinated averaged about 58 cases per 100,000 residents.

[…] Among counties with populations of 1 million or more, the 10 most vaccinated had a case rate more than 27 percent higher than the 10 least vaccinated. In counties with populations of 500,000 to 1 million, the 10 most vaccinated had a case rate almost 19 percent higher than the 10 least vaccinated.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/most-vaccinated-counties-see-more-covid-19-cases-than-least-vaccinated-counties_4381975.html

The post PI Newsletter 188 appeared first on Polonia Institute.

Opinions expressed in the articles or videos do not represent the views of Polonia Institute

EUROPE

1.  ‘A victory so big you can see it from the moon… and Brussels,’ says Hungary’s Viktor Orban

Hungary’s nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban declared victory in Sunday’s national elections, claiming a mandate for a fourth term as a still incomplete vote count showed a strong lead for his right-wing party.

In a 10-minute speech to Fidesz party officials and supporters at an election night event in Budapest, Orban addressed a crowd cheering “Viktor!” and declared it was a “huge victory” for his party.

“We won a victory so big that you can see it from the moon, and you can certainly see it from Brussels,” said Orban, who has often been condemned by the European Union for overseeing democratic backsliding and alleged corruption.

With around 91% of votes tallied, Orban’s Fidesz-led coalition had won 53%, while a pro-European opposition coalition, United for Hungary, had just over 34%, according to the National Election Office.

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/04/04/a-victory-so-big-you-can-see-it-from-the-moon-and-brussels-says-hungary-s-viktor-orban

2.  As the war in Ukraine rages on, Europe braces itself for stagflation

2022 was supposed to be the year when the EU moved on from the economic woes of the pandemic and entered a new chapter of recovery and prosperity. Then Vladimir Putin decided to invade Ukraine.

A month after the start of the war, all forecasts and expectations have been thrown out of the window.

Annual inflation in the Eurozone has surged to 7.5%, up from 5.9% in February and higher than most analysts had predicted. Energy prices alone have skyrocketed 44.7% on a yearly basis, a stunning rise compared to the 4.3% rate registered in March 2021.

As Moscow shows no signs of giving up on its brutal military campaign, uncertainty over the EU’s immediate future only deepens. The perfect storm of rising prices, constrained supply chains, and economic deceleration is fuelling fears of stagnation and a sudden halt to the post-coronavirus revival.

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/04/04/as-the-war-in-ukraine-rages-on-europe-braces-itself-for-stagflation

3.  Slovakia to make Russian gas payments in rubles

“I have to provide energy for the Slovak economy,” notes Slovakia’s economy minister Richard Sulík

Slovakia to make Russian gas payments in rubles

4.  Staying neutral: Moldova’s PM Natalia Gavrilița says yes to joining the EU but no to NATO

Sándor Zsíros, Euronews:

“How do you see the security situation of your country with the war in Ukraine? Is Moldova under direct military threat by Russia?”

Natalia Gavrilița, Prime minister of Moldova

“It is very unfortunate what is happening in Ukraine. We condemn the war and we strongly support Ukrainian independence and territorial integrity within its internationally recognised borders. We are living in a complex region with security issues for Moldova as well, especially regarding the Transnistrian and separatist region. But we are currently seeing no danger or risks of spill-over into the Transnistria region. We are continuing with our negotiating formats. Moldova is a neutral country. Its neutrality is enshrined in the constitution and we expect everyone to act in accordance with this principle.”

Sándor Zsíros, Euronews:

“Some Romanian political parties say there should be a referendum so Moldova can unite with Romania and get into the EU and NATO this way. Is this scenario on the table?”

Natalia Gavrilița, Prime minister of Moldova

“Currently, we are not discussing this option.”

https://www.euronews.com/2022/03/08/staying-neutral-moldova-s-pm-natalia-gavrilita-says-yes-to-joining-eu-but-no-to-nato

RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT

5.  Russian Forces Continue to Refocus on Offensive in Eastern Ukraine

British intelligence said Monday that Russian forces were continuing to consolidate and reorganize as they refocus their offensive in the Donbass region in the east of Ukraine.

Russian troops, including mercenaries from the Russian state-linked Wagner private military company, were being moved into eastern Ukraine, the UK Ministry of Defence said in an update.

Christo Grozev, the lead Russia investigator with investigative journalist group Bellingcat, said in a Twitter post Monday that Wagner mercenaries had been spotted in Donetsk, one of the contested regions in eastern Ukraine that make up the Donbass.

Russia’s defense ministry said Monday that Moscow-aligned troops of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic were “developing the offensive,” seizing a fortified area and “liberating” the city of Novobakhmutovka, claiming to have destroyed up to a company of Ukraine’s 25th Airborne Brigade in the fighting.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/russian-forces-continue-to-refocus-on-offensive-in-eastern-ukraine_4380721.html

6.  In Ukraine, New Reports of War Crimes Emerge as Russians Retreat From Kyiv Area

More than 100 civilians lay buried in mass graves in this suburb of Kyiv after Russian troops withdrew last week, one of several regions in which Ukrainian officials and independent rights watchdogs say they are uncovering evidence of war crimes perpetrated by occupation forces.

When the Russian military forces abandoned Bucha, it left streets littered with bodies of civilians. Human Rights Watch on Sunday released a report documenting instances of rape and summary executions in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine, including Bucha, as well as other alleged crimes.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukrainians-count-dead-dig-mass-graves-clear-land-mines-after-russian-pullback-11648970003

7.  Russia denies killing civilians in Ukraine’s Bucha

Russia on Sunday denied Ukrainian allegations that it had killed civilians in the Ukrainian town of Bucha, describing footage and photographs of dead bodies as a “provocation” and a “staged performance” by Kyiv.

[…] It called the footage “another staged performance by the Kyiv regime for the Western media.”

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/04/03/Russia-denies-killing-civilians-in-Ukraine-s-Bucha

8.  Pentagon can’t ‘independently’ confirm images out of Ukraine’s Bucha: US official

The Pentagon said Monday that it could not “independently and single-handedly” verify the atrocities carried out by Russia against civilians in Ukraine’s Bucha but called the accounts “disgusting.”

“The Pentagon can’t independently and single-handedly confirm that, but we’re also not in any position to refute those claims,” a senior US defense official told reporters.

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/04/04/Pentagon-can-t-independently-confirm-images-out-of-Ukraine-s-Bucha-US-official

9.  Putin’s 20-Year March to War in Ukraine

In early November, months before the war began, CIA Director William Burns visited Moscow to deliver a warning: The U.S. believed Russian President Vladimir Putin was preparing to invade Ukraine. If he went ahead, he would face crippling sanctions from a united West.

The American spy chief was connected on a secure Kremlin phone with Mr. Putin, who was in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, isolated from all but a few confidants. The Russian leader made no effort to deny Mr. Burns’ charge. Instead, he calmly recited a list of grievances about how the U.S. had for years ignored Russian security concerns.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/vladimir-putins-20-year-march-to-war-in-ukraineand-how-the-west-mishandled-it-11648826461?mod=world_trending_now_article_pos3

10.  Russia has killed civilians in Ukraine. Kyiv’s defense tactics add to the danger.

[…] Increasingly, Ukrainians are confronting an uncomfortable truth: The military’s understandable impulse to defend against Russian attacks could be putting civilians in the crosshairs. Virtually every neighborhood in most cities has become militarized, some more than others, making them potential targets for Russian forces trying to take out Ukrainian defenses.

“I am very reluctant to suggest that Ukraine is responsible for civilian casualties, because Ukraine is fighting to defend its country from an aggressor,” said William Schabas, an international law professor at Middlesex University in London. “But to the extent that Ukraine brings the battlefield to the civilian neighborhoods, it increases the danger to civilians.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/28/ukraine-kyiv-russia-civilians/

11.  Release of Ukraine Intelligence Represents New Front in U.S. Information War With Russia

To fight Kremlin, Biden authorized initiative to declassify and share information with the public and allies

The new approach to public intelligence sharing has involved declassifying a cascade of secrets normally reserved for top policy makers: updates on Russian troop movements; detailed allegations that Moscow would stage a pretext for its invasion; even, last week, reports of growing tension between Mr. Putin and his generals. White House officials call the strategy “downgrade and share”—with “downgrade” referring to lowering the classification level of U.S. documents or data.

[…] some see “downgrade and share” as foreshadowing future uses of intelligence in international crises.

“I really think this is a harbinger,” said Glenn Gerstell, former general counsel at the National Security Agency. “Future conflicts are going to be shaped, instigated and deterred by releases of information beforehand.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/release-of-secrets-represents-new-front-in-u-s-information-war-with-russia-11649070001

12.  US pushes to suspend Russia from Human Rights Council

The United States will ask the UN General Assembly to suspend Russia from the Human Rights Council, the US ambassador to the United Nations said on Monday, after Ukraine accused Russian troops of killing dozens of civilians in the town of Bucha.

A two-thirds majority vote by the 193-member assembly in New York can suspend a state from the council for persistently committing gross and systematic violations of human rights.

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/04/04/US-pushes-to-suspend-Russia-from-Human-Rights-Council

13.  Putin Signs Decree Imposing Restrictions on ‘Unfriendly’ Countries

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree Monday to place visa restrictions on countries that have taken “unfriendly actions” against the Kremlin in recent weeks.

The decree was mandated “in response to unfriendly actions of the European Union,” according to the text of the order, as reported by state-run media. Russian news outlets also published a photo of Putin signing the measure.

It ordered the Russian foreign ministry and other bodies to decide on introducing personal entry restrictions on “foreign citizens and stateless people who commit unfriendly actions against Russia, its citizens or its legal entities.”

https://www.theepochtimes.com/putin-signs-decree-imposing-restrictions-on-unfriendly-countries_4381151.html

14.  Russia moves closer to gold standard and what it really means

Towards the end of March, Russia made a rather startling announcement that could have long term implications. It decided to set a new peg for the Rouble in terms of gold. The benchmark, to begin with, was Rouble 5,000 per gram of gold. If you consider the global price of gold in dollar terms, this amounts to a substantial overvaluation of the Rouble vis-à-vis the dollar. However, Russia has made it clear that its peg with the dollar is immaterial and what matters is the peg of Rouble to gold.

Sanctions and the aftermath

How has Russia reacted to these sanctions?

How the Rouble gold peg will undermine the dollar?

What is the bottom-line and what this could imply?

https://www.indiainfoline.com/article/general-others-factiva/russia-moves-closer-to-gold-standard-and-what-it-really-means-122040400030_1.html

15.  Academic Terrorism: How Think Tanks Stoked Ukraine Crisis?

A “prophetic” RAND Corporation report titled “Overextending and Unbalancing Russia” published in 2019 declares the stated goal of American policymakers is “to undermine Russia just as the US subversively destabilized the former Soviet Union during the Cold War,” and predicts to the letter the crisis unfolding in Ukraine. RAND Corporation is a quasi-US governmental think tank that receives three-quarters of its funding from the US military.

While designating Russia as an “intractable adversary,” the report notes that “Russia has deep seated anxieties” about Western interference and potential military attack. These anxieties are deemed to be “a vulnerability to exploit.”

The RAND report lists several “provocative measures” to insidiously “destabilize and undermine” Russia. Some of the steps include: repositioning bombers within easy striking range of key Russian strategic targets; deploying additional tactical nuclear weapons to locations in Europe and Asia; increasing US and allied naval force posture and presence in Russia’s operating areas (Black Sea); holding NATO war exercises on Russia’s borders; and withdrawing from the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty.

[…]

In December 2021, Russia proposed a peace treaty with the US and NATO. The central Russian proposal was a written agreement assuring that Ukraine would not join the NATO military alliance. When the proposed treaty was contemptuously rebuffed by Washington, it appeared the die was cast.

The Intercept reported on March 11 that despite staging a massive military buildup along Russia’s border with Ukraine for nearly a year, “Russian President Vladimir Putin did not make a final decision to invade until just before he launched the attack on February 24,” senior current and former US intelligence officials told the Intercept. “It wasn’t until February that the agency and the rest of the US intelligence community became convinced that Putin would invade,” the senior official added.

Academic Terrorism: How Think Tanks Stoked Ukraine Crisis?

SOCIETY

16.  The Crisis

Broadly speaking, a crisis comes in two forms. There is the internal crisis driven by irreconcilable contradictions. Then there is the external crisis that is driven by some unusual occurrence like a natural disaster. The latter tests mostly the ability of the system to weather the storm and recover. The former tests the ability of the system to radically alter itself in order to address the contradiction. This is the most dangerous crisis and the one that few systems survive.

Of course, the internal crisis can be papered over for a long time until some external crisis comes along and makes that impossible. The external crisis puts pressure on the system, forcing it to respond under duress. The internal problems are then made obvious as the system responds poorly. Efforts to quickly resolve those issues in order to address the immediate problems just create new problems. This was the process that led to the French Revolution.

The Crisis

PANDEMIC

 17.  A proposal at  the World Health Organization [Video]

The post PI Newsletter #187 appeared first on Polonia Institute.

NEWS AND COMMENTARIES

Opinions expressed in the articles or videos do not represent the views of Polonia Institute

1.  Ukraine and Russia Prepare for Talks in Turkey as Russian Missiles Hit Cities

Ukrainian forces fight to recapture territory and brace for renewed Russian attacks as Moscow shifts its focus to Ukraine’s east and south

Russia and Ukraine prepared to hold cease-fire talks in Turkey to end more than a month of war while intense fighting continued, with Ukrainian forces pressing to retake territory north of the capital Kyiv after Russian forces fired missiles at several Ukrainian cities overnight.

Russian negotiators were due to arrive in Istanbul late on Monday, followed by a Ukrainian delegation during the night, for cease-fire talks scheduled for Tuesday morning. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky over the weekend outlined the conditions under which Ukraine might accept neutral status as part of a peace settlement with Russia, saying his country could hold a referendum on neutrality, but only after Russian occupation forces leave Ukraine’s territory.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-and-russia-prepare-for-talks-in-turkey-as-russian-missiles-hit-cities-11648464333

2.  Zelenskyy Makes Key Demand for Face-to-Face Meeting With Putin

[…]

Zelenskyy said on Monday that the question of neutrality should be decided by Ukrainian voters in a referendum after Russia withdraws its forces.

In response to the proposal for talks, Russian offth Putinicials said that talks are welcome but stressed that no outside Western mediators be present.

“We’re ready to give diplomacy a chance. That’s why we agreed to the talks, which are resuming in Istanbul,” Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said during a video conference on Monday, according to state-run media.

Lavrov stipulated there have been “many examples” of incidents when diplomacy was “shattered by Western colleagues,” adding that “they can’t be trusted anymore.”

“I wouldn’t want to see any shuttle diplomacy from our Western partners, because they’ve already done their ‘shuttling’–in February 2014 in Ukraine and in February 2015 in Minsk,” he added.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/zelenskyy-makes-key-demand-for-face-to-face-meeting-with-putin_4366987.html

3.  Zelensky says Ukraine studying issue of neutrality

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksyy said on Sunday that a Russian demand of Ukrainian neutrality, a key issue for Moscow at conflict negotiations, was being closely looked at by Kyiv’s negotiators.

“This point of the negotiations is understandable to me and it is being discussed, it is being carefully studied,” Zelenskyy said during an interview with several independent Russian news organizations.

The Kremlin earlier this month said Sweden and Austria offered models of neutrality that Ukraine could adopt to help end Russia’s invasion in Ukraine.

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/03/27/Zelenksyy-says-Ukraine-studying-issue-of-neutrality-

4.  White House has to clean up Biden’s embarrassing gaffe to US soldiers in Poland to avoid international incident

President Joe Biden made an embarrassing gaffe to U.S. soldiers in Poland, and the White House had to hastily issue a clarification on his comments to avoid international provocation.

Biden implied that the U.S. was sending troops into Ukraine when speaking on Friday to members of the Air Army’s 82nd Airborne Division at Rzeszow, Poland, just 60 miles from the border with Ukraine.

“And you, some, some of you have been there,” said Biden. “You’re going to see, you’re going to see women, young people standing, standing in the middle of, in front of a damn tank, just saying, ‘I’m not leaving. I’m holding my ground.’ They’re incredible.”

https://www.theblaze.com/news/biden-poland-gaffe-ukraine-troops?utm_source=theblaze-dailyPM&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily-Newsletter__PM%202022-03-26&utm_term=ACTIVE%20LIST%20-%20TheBlaze%20Daily%20PM

5.  Biden’s Remark on Putin Stirs Anxiety Among Western Allies

President Biden’s remark that Russian President Vladimir Putin “cannot remain in power” came under fire for muddying U.S. policy and threatening to undermine diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine.

Administration officials and Democratic lawmakers said Sunday the off-the-cuff remark was an emotional response to the president’s interactions in Warsaw with refugees.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-officials-rush-to-clarify-bidens-comment-on-russias-putin-11648401478?mod=series_rusukrainenato

6.  US has no strategy of regime change in Russia: Blinken

The United States has no strategy of regime change for Russia, Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters on Sunday after President Joe Biden a day earlier said Russian President Vladimir Putin “cannot remain in power.”

“I think the President, the White House made the point last night that, quite simply, President Putin cannot be empowered to wage war or engage in aggression against Ukraine or anyone else,” Blinken said at a press conference during a visit to Jerusalem.

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/03/27/US-has-no-strategy-of-regime-change-in-Russia-Blinken

7.  Days After Biden Hailed NATO As “More United Than Ever”, A Split Emerges Over Talking To Putin

As NATO allies discuss the terms of any potential peace deal to be struck between Russia and Ukraine, signs of strategic splits are emerging from within their ranks.  With the war now in its second month, a series of dilemmas are coming into sharp focus over which conditions could be deemed acceptable by Ukraine for any accord, especially as regards the security guarantees alliance members might be able to offer Kyiv.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-are-all-latest-news-and-developments-ukraine-war-march-28

8.  NATO Allies Are Split on Whether They Should Talk to Putin

“We shouldn’t escalate, with words or actions,” President Emmanuel Macron told French television […]

Berlin is on a similar wavelength. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s chief spokesman, Steffen Hebestreit, told reporters on Monday that “in view of the horrible pictures that we currently have to stomach now for several days and actually weeks, the highest priority for now is to be able to reach a cease-fire so that the killing can stop.” Scholz discussed the negotiation process on Monday with Ukrainian President.

[…] At a NATO leaders’ summit last week, Scholz cautioned against any rushed moves, such as abandoning The NATO-Russia Founding Act. (see more about the Act below) Nixing that agreement would permanently shut the door on Moscow and remove binding commitments on troop deployments for both sides, according to two officials with knowledge of the discussions.

Read more at: https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/nato-allies-are-split-on-whether-they-should-talk-to-putin

9.  NATO-Russia Founding Act

Fact sheet released by the White House, Office of the Press Secretary, Washington, DC, May 15, 1997

On May 14, NATO Secretary General Solana and Russian Foreign Minister Primakov announced agreement on the text of the “Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security between NATO and the Russian Federation,” creating a new relationship between the Alliance and Russia. The Act has been referred to NATO countries and PresidentYeltsin for approval.

The Clinton Administration has made building a more stable, secure, and undivided Europe one of its key foreign policy priorities. At the Helsinki summit in March, Presidents Clinton and Yeltsin agreed on the importance of crafting a cooperative relationship between NATO and Russia. The Act provides the basis for an enduring and robust partnership between the Alliance and Russia, one that can make an important contribution to Europe’s security architecture in the 21st century.

Under the terms of the Act, NATO and Russia will consult and coordinate regularly and, where possible and appropriate, act jointly–as they are doing in Bosnia now. The Act has five principal sections:

The preamble notes that NATO and Russia do not consider one another adversaries and cites the sweeping transformations in NATO and Russia that make possible this new relationship.

https://1997-2001.state.gov/regions/eur/fs_nato_whitehouse.html#:~:text=On%20May%2014%2C%20NATO%20Secretary,between%20the%20Alliance%20and%20Russia.

10.  Russia Developing Retaliatory Measures Against ‘Unfriendly’ Countries: Kremlin

Retaliatory visa measures are being developed in Russia, said Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Monday as another top Kremlin official said U.S. President Joe Biden’s recent comments are a “cause for concern.”

During public comments, Lavrov said that the new visa measures would restrict entry for citizens from “unfriendly” nations. He did not provide details about the countries that would be targeted, but he did single out the United States and its allies.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/russia-developing-retaliatory-measures-against-unfriendly-countries-kremlin_4366837.html

11.  Germany: G7 rejects Russia’s demand to pay for gas in rubles

The Group of Seven major economies agreed Monday to reject Moscow’s demand to pay for Russian natural gas exports in rubles.

German energy minister Robert Habeck told reporters that “all G-7 ministers agreed completely that this (would be) a one-sided and clear breach of the existing contracts” for natural gas, which is used to heat homes, generate electricity and power industry.

The energy ministers of France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United States, the United Kingdom and Canada, as well as the European Union energy commissioner, met by videoconference and reaffirmed that contracts “must be respected,” with most stipulating payments be in euros or dollars, a G-7 statement said.

“Payment in ruble is not acceptable, and we will urge the companies affected not to follow (Russian President Vladimir) Putin’s demand,” Habeck said.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/germany-g7-rejects-russia-s-demand-to-pay-for-gas-in-rubles/ar-AAVA3oB

12.  NATO’s European Nuclear Deterrent: The B61 Bomb

Declassified Records Offer Glimpses of Its Early Development

Defense Officials Wanted a Nuke with Light Weight, Small Size, and “Dial-A-Yield” Capability

[…] A recent Washington Post article explored the weapon the West would be likely to turn to first – either for its political or military value – if and when the NATO alliance begins deliberating over a nuclear response. That weapon is the B61 bomb, which the U.S. has deployed in NATO Europe for decades and which has been a subject of ongoing debates over the alliance’s military posture.

The B61 bomb has a long history, going back to the middle years of the Cold War, with development work beginning in 1962.[1] The Post article by Dan Zak reviews the bomb’s history and its characteristics along with the controversy over whether NATO needs such weapons for deterrence.

https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/nuclear-vault/2022-03-28/natos-european-nuclear-deterrent-b61-bomb?eType=EmailBlastContent&eId=7faacaff-ff5c-4bc0-99c8-120025a04524

13.  Ukraine’s Propaganda War: International PR Firms, DC Lobbyists, and CIA Cutouts.

[…]

The international effort is spearheaded by public relations firm PR Network co-founder Nicky Regazzoni and Francis Ingham, a top public relations consultant with close ties to the UK’s government. Ingraham previously worked for Britain’s Conservative Party, sits on the UK Government Communication Service Strategy and Evaluation Council, is Chief Executive of the International Communications Consultancy Organisation, and leads the membership body for UK local government communicators, LG Comms.

“We’ve been privileged to help coordinate efforts to support the Ukrainian Government in the last few days, “ Ingham told PRovoke Media. “Agencies have offered up entire teams to support Kyiv in the communications war. Our support for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine is unwavering and will continue for as long as needed.”

With an anonymous Ukrainian figure joining two of the top public relations figures […]

[,,,]

Among the propaganda constructs distributed in the dossier, is a video of the Snake Island incident, which was quickly proven false, in which Ukrainian border guards stationed on a small island were reported to have been killed after they told an approaching Russian warship that had urged them to surrender to “Go f*** yourself.” President Zelensky held a press conference announcing he would award the men the Hero of Ukraine medal as mainstream media spread the story widely. However, the supposedly-dead soldiers quickly turned up alive and well, proving their heroic stand to be a farce.

Despite the story being proven as fake, the dossier contains a propaganda video promoting it.

Ukraine’s Propaganda War: International PR Firms, DC Lobbyists and CIA Cutouts

14.  The Cuban missile crisis 50th anniversary

https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/cuban-missile-crisis-50th-anniversary

The post PI Newsletter #186 appeared first on Polonia Institute.

by Marek Jan Chodakiewicz

In Ukraine, Russia has presently redeployed a trusty Soviet propaganda trope: “liberation from Nazism.” This narrative is, of course, mendacious. Yet, every lie contains a kernel of truth. Our objective here is to extract it and put it in its proper context. We shall consider “liberation” and “Nazism” separately.

“Liberation from Nazism” is a standard Soviet trope originating in World War II. However, Moscow also lustily employed it during the crushing of the Polish Poznań uprising in June 1956, Hungarian insurrection in November 1956, and the Czechoslovak upheaval in August 1968.

In fact, throughout its history, the USSR justified its imperialist aggression invariably in terms of bringing “liberty” and annihilating evil. Usually, the target was “fascism/Nazism/Hitlerism,” but there were derivatives such as “imperialism,” “oppression,” and so forth. Often the Soviets would refer to their actions as “rendering fraternal assistance.”

All those propaganda threads are present today in the war in Ukraine. A more sophisticated iteration of “liberation from Nazism” focuses on the Western public, while its cruder form targets domestic Russian audiences.

However, before delving into the essence of Moscow’s current insidiousness, we should revisit the original propaganda matrix of the Second World War.

It is true that in 1945 the Soviet Union’s Red Army and NKVD obliterated Germany’s Wehrmacht and the SS on the eastern front. But Stalin did not liberate anyone. Instead, the Soviet dictator enslaved everyone in the lands his armies conquered. For to liberate means to bring liberty; the Soviet dictator did no such thing.

More precisely, Stalin replaced Hitler as the occupier. The Soviets re-enslaved the slaves of the German Nazis. A Red totalitarianism substituted for the Brown one.

From the point of view of the majority populations, in some places, like the Baltics, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Rumania, the Red Army’s arrival augured terror much more horrible than what the Germans had wrought. In other lands, say, Poland and Yugoslavia, the Soviet occupation was less ruthless than the German had been. That is not to say it was mild; it was simply not as bloody as the Nazi one, which is no reason to rejoice.

Of course, there were regional variations even within the same country. Take Czechoslovakia, for example. The Soviet dominion over Slovakia was harsher than the German overlordship. The Czech experience was initially relatively mild under Stalin, while it had been relatively moderate under Hitler, unless one was Jewish.

An important qualification here is that none of this applies to the Jewish minority. According to the Third Reich’s racialist fantasies, the Jewish people were slated for complete extermination. The Germans failed to kill them all, but not for lack of trying.

Certainly, other captive people suffered horribly, the Poles in particular as well as eastern Slavs, Ukrainians, and Belarusians. They died in their millions, but their annihilation percentage-wise never reached the total proportions of their societies as it did with the Jewish people.

Can we, therefore, talk about Jewish liberation? Yes, we can, but only in Western Europe.

Western Allied war aims were crystal clear. They were laid out in the Atlantic Charter of August 14, 1941. As original signatories, both the United States and Great Britain pledged themselves to a restoration. The Allies promised to restore Europe to the status quo ante. That entailed overturning totalitarianism and restoring pre-war borders, including Polish ones.

Premier Winston Churchill and President Franklin D. Roosevelt pledged to restore freedom and democracy. They kept their word to a limited extent, in Western Europe only. In the central and eastern part of the Old Continent, the Allied leaders permitted Stalin to keep his ill-gotten territorial gains, expand them, and foist Communism upon Moscow’s captive peoples.

Western Europe was lucky. The liberating American, British, and Polish armies virtually everywhere brought freedom and democracy back. That also entailed property restitution. The Germans routinely confiscated the properties of emigres who continued the struggle and, especially, Jewish property, as per Nazi ideology.

All Jews were expropriated under the rule of the Third Reich before most of them were murdered. In general, stolen Jewish (and other) property accrued to the German state and, in certain countries, to the native collaborationist regimes. In most cases, the state kept the properties, particularly large industrial enterprises.

However, regular properties, such as small shops, apartments, etc., were either leased or rented to new tenants. The German (or collaborationist) state remained the owner. In some cases, the state permitted the sale of petty Jewish (and other) properties to new owners. In other cases, some properties were simply awarded to leading supporters of the Nazi (or collaborationist) regime.

When the United States liberated Western Europe, it did restore not only democracy and sovereignty to France, Belgium, Luxemburg, and the Netherlands but also reversed the Third Reich’s property arrangements. Simply, there was wholesale restitution of the system, including as far as individual property holders was concerned.

Private property is at the root of individual liberty. America understood it well. It insisted that sovereignty, democracy, and freedom included respect for private property. Newly liberated Western European countries concurred. Sure, property restitution measures, returning real estate and other items to the rightful (primarily Jewish) owners triggered gripes, unrest, and even demonstrations here and there, for example, in France and the Netherlands. But it did not matter. The United States brought liberty back, and liberty requires justice.

The opposite was the case with the Soviet Union’s conquest of Central and Eastern Europe. Since the objective was enslavement, Stalin naturally eschewed any restoration. There would be no sovereignty and no democracy restored.

As for private property, the Communists were hostile to it from the start. However, so long as the Soviets feigned “moderation” for the benefit of the West in the newly conquered lands, some property restitution took place. It mainly concerned petty properties previously confiscated by the Germans.

Simply, pre-war low-level judges, who survived the carnage, and local non-Communist magistrates were rather sympathetic to property restitution. Justice dictated that houses, apartments, shops, and other items be returned. Property registers favored such verdicts.

However, Communist rulers at higher levels invariably opposed any property restitution, including Jewish property. Finding the Soviet system of occupation hostile, many Jewish owners sold their reclaimed properties and fled to the West.

Jews and their gentile neighbors suffered iniquities and economic deprivation under Stalin because the Soviet dictator refused to restore democracy and sovereignty in the conquered lands.

In Poland, for example, the NKVD and the Red Army annihilated the Polish Underground State (PUS) and its clandestine Home Army, an Allied force, which had fought the Germans for five long years. Thus, the Soviets destroyed a free government and its administration. The Polish insurgents thus betrayed reacted by resisting the Soviet occupation with arms in their hands. This, in turn, further destabilized Poland and obliterated the law and order that the PUS had briefly maintained in the wake of the retreat of the murderous Germans.

An anti-Communist insurgency made life even more dangerous for everyone. Similar developments occurred in the Baltics, Belarus, Ukraine, and the Balkans. Everyone, including Jewish citizens, was prevented from exercising his and her fundamental human rights to liberty, property, and pursuit of happiness.

Instead, Soviet totalitarian slavery afflicted everything everywhere the Red Army appeared. That included mass rape, mass arrests, mass torture, mass executions, and mass deportations. Granted, they were less extensive than the German terror previously.

Nonetheless, tens of thousands lost their lives for active and passive and violent and non-violent resistance to Communism. Millions of women were raped. Many hundreds of thousands were shipped off to the Gulag, including over 100,000 from Poland alone, joining millions of victims of earlier deportations.

This was the exact opposite of what was obtained in liberated Western Europe. Needless to say, the victorious US forces inflicted nothing like this on Western Europeans before or after the Third Reich’s surrender, not even on the vanquished Germans, who – instead –  became undeserving beneficiaries of the Western Allied mercy.

Since Central and Eastern Europe was enslaved there was neither justice nor peace.

So much for the myth of Stalin’s “liberation.”

The post Channeling Stalin: Unscrambling Russian Propaganda in Ukraine appeared first on Polonia Institute.

Opinions expressed in the enclosed articles and videos do not represent the views of Polonia Institute

1.  Biden says Putin ‘cannot remain in power’ in sweeping speech on Russian invasion of Ukraine

Later Saturday, a White House official attempted to clarify that Biden “was not discussing Putin’s power in Russia, or regime change,” but rather was making the point that Putin “cannot be allowed to exercise power over his neighbors or the region.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/26/biden-says-putin-cannot-remain-in-power-in-sweeping-speech-on-russian-invasion-of-ukraine.html

2.  Ukraine: US President at emergency NATO Summit

NATO leaders made clear in a statement that they are taking measures to ensure their nations’ security and defense on land, in the air, and at sea amid the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The NATO member states warned Moscow that they were increasing the resilience of their societies and infrastructure to counter Russian cyber-attacks and other threats.

Earlier, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said four new battlegroups would be sent to Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Romania.

[…] A senior U.S. security official said some 10,000 American military personnel are also in Ukraine, though the White House insists no U.S. combat troops are on Ukrainian territory.

https://www.vaticannews.va/en/world/news/2022-03/ukraine-nato-summit-us-president-war-russia.html

3.  Russia says sending international peacekeepers to Ukraine would be ‘very reckless’

6.  End of Petro-Dollar Begins, Russia Instructs Central Bank to Organize Payments From Hostile Countries in Rubles

Facing financial sanctions and economic pressures from the U.S, NATO, EU and western allies, Putin stated today that all oil and gas payments must be made in Russian rubles.

The EU has few options as they are reliant upon Russia for energy products oil and gas.  If Putin organizes payment in rubles, his currency will automatically increase.  This sets the stage for other less hostile countries like the BRICS alliance to assist Putin ideologically and financially by transacting in rubles through the Russian central bank.

(Oil and Gas) – […] Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that Russia would start charging the countries it considers “hostile” in rubles for its natural gas.

End of Petro-Dollar Begins, Russia Instructs Central Bank to Organize Payments From Hostile Countries in Rubles

7.  Opinion: Poland’s 10-point plan to save Ukraine

Together with Slovenia and the Czech Republic, we have prepared a list of actions the EU must enforce if it really wants to end the war.

Mateusz Morawiecki – prime minister of Poland.

[…]

First, we must cut off all Russian banks from the SWIFT international payment system. Otherwise, the Russian economy will adapt to the new conditions within a few weeks.

Second, we must put in place a common asylum policy for Russian soldiers who refuse to serve the criminal regime in Moscow.

Third, we must completely stop Russian propaganda in Europe. Freedom of speech does not mean the right to lie.

https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-10-point-plan-save-ukraine/

8.  Opinion : Russia Has Declared War on the West. Here’s How to Win.

The West should arm Ukraine “to the teeth,” says Poland’s foreign minister Zbigniew Rau

[…]

The greatest security crisis of our time requires us to think big to succeed. The United States can lead this effort and help the world to restore peace and the integrity of our institutions.

Here is a plan for victory:

First, Ukraine should be provided with all the weapons it needs to fight back against the Russian aggressor. President Vladimir Putin seeks no compromises. He attacked Ukraine, driven by his desire to resurrect the Russian empire. What he demands from Ukraine is its unconditional surrender, and even if he is now unable to achieve this end, he will not simply concede. He will continue to sow death and destruction to weaken Ukrainian morale. The only way the international community can influence his calculus is to arm Ukraine to the teeth, rendering his goals unachievable.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/03/24/russia-war-how-to-win-00020059

9.  Opinion: John Mearsheimer on why the West is principally responsible for the Ukrainian crisis

https://archive.ph/2022.03.12-024238/https:/www.economist.com/by-invitation/2022/03/11/john-mearsheimer-on-why-the-west-is-principally-responsible-for-the-ukrainian-crisis

10.  European Commission Punishing Ukraine Refugees Over LGBT

Cash-strapped Central European states Poland and Hungary have asked the EU Commission to intervene on their behalf in order to receive nearly $45 billion in assistance currently being withheld because the two states do not hold liberal views on homosexuality and transgenderism.

This is happening even though Poland and Hungary are bearing the brunt of the first impact of Ukrainian refugees. Over 2 million Ukrainian refugees entered Poland since Russia invaded the Ukraine. Nearly half a million have fled to Hungary.

European Commission Punishing Ukraine Refugees Over LGBT

The post PI Newsletter #185 appeared first on Polonia Institute.

NEWS AND COMMENTARIES

Opinions expressed in the enclosed articles and videos do not represent the views of Polonia Institute

1.  LIVE UPDATES: Ukraine Says Russia Talks Moving Forward as West Plans More Sanctions

Talks between Ukraine and Russia are moving forward, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Wednesday, as the West plans to announce more sanctions against the Kremlin amid a worsening humanitarian crisis.

But in an early morning address, Zelensky held out hope for negotiations, which have yielded little since the Feb. 24 invasion began.

“It’s very difficult, sometimes confrontational,” he said. “But step by step we are moving forward.”

https://www.theepochtimes.com/live-updates-ukraine-says-russia-seized-relief-workers-in-mariupol-convoy_4355894.html

2.  Biden will discuss peacekeeping mission to Ukraine during his visit to Poland

U.S. President Joe Biden will arrive in Warsaw on Friday and is set to discuss the proposal to send a “peacekeeping mission” to Ukraine with Polish officials, a move that would represent a serious escalation in the war from the West if it were to occur.

Biden will discuss peacekeeping mission to Ukraine during his visit to Poland

3.  Poland restricts half of its airspace for military use only

Half of Poland’s airspace is restricted for military use, according to the CEO of the Polish Air Navigation Services Agency Janusz Janiszewski

Poland restricts half of its airspace for military use only

4.  Airlift in Solidarity. Germany Demands America Take in More Ukrainian Refugees

Take more refugees — that’s the message Germany’s Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock, has for the Biden administration.

Joe Biden, the current president of the United States, has already reportedly opened the country up to a wide variety of migrants — Ukrainian refugees and otherwise, though it appears that Baerbock believes the country needs to take in even more people.

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2022/03/22/airlift-in-solidarity-germany-demands-america-take-in-more-ukrainian-refugees/

5.  One Third of ‘Ukrainian Refugees’ Arriving in France Are Not Ukrainian

The intense wave of migration from Ukraine is said to be the Europe’s fastest in decades. But it has now been reported that as many as 30 percent of the Ukrainian arrivals are migrants of other nationalities, many of whom originate from Africa and the Middle East.

[…] Now it is reported that many of the new arrivals being identified by French authorities are not Ukrainian. Allegedly, “7.5 percent are of Algerian nationality, while 3.5 percent of arrivals are from the Ivory Coast and Morocco respectively … Indians and Kyrgyzstan nationals are next on the list at 2.5 percent apiece, while other nationalities arriving include the Democratic Republic of Congo, Cameroon, Pakistan, Nigeria, and China” according to Remix News and Le Figaro.

6.  Ukrainian refugees in Sweden fearful after migrant males attempted to break into their hostel

Ukrainian refugees in Sweden fearful after migrant males attempted to break into their hostel

7.  Former top Pentagon advisor Col. Doug Macgregor on Russia-Ukraine war

8.  Ukraine and the Clash of Civilizations

Consider just a few examples of how American leaders fumbled certain specific challenges at the end of the Cold War.  […] In maybe the worst blunder of the post–Cold War period, the United States assumed that once Iraqis had been saved from a dictatorial regime they would rally to the flag of democracy, disregard centuries of ethnic and religious tensions and quickly embrace Western rights, values and outlooks.

What all these blunders have in common is the neglect of Samuel Huntington’s insight that the post–Cold War world was arranging itself along ethnic, religious and civilizational lines. Nations were throwing off artificial Cold War alliances and rallying around common historical ties. We should have been able to predict that Turkey would gravitate into the Islamic world and away from NATO’s interests, or that Orthodox Greece would be one of the most troublesome members of the European Union, or that Muslim Chechnya would seek independence from Orthodox Russia. As Huntington wrote, “In the post–Cold War world, the most important distinctions among peoples are not ideological, political, or economic. They are cultural.”

U.S. policy toward Russia has suffered deeply from failure to understand what most motivates the action of groups. […]

Since Huntington’s insights and predictions were far more prescient than Fukuyama’s and those of many others, the U.S. foreign policy establishment should have heeded his advice when the crisis in Ukraine emerged. But, it did not.

Huntington predicted the crisis in Ukraine. His theory that nations would return to their historical and cultural roots had a natural corollary: nations that were divided between civilizations, so-called “cleft” countries, were the places that would most likely generate great-power conflict. […]

By Huntington’s civilizational standard, Ukraine is a severely cleft country,…..

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/ukraine-and-clash-civilizations-153636

9.  How Not to Think About Ukraine

As Russia wages war on its neighbor, Western observers fall into familiar patterns of thought, with potentially disastrous results.

[…] Just when sobriety, responsibility, probity, and diplomatic skill are most needful, our pundits and policymakers offer the opposite: trembling emotion, cheap propaganda, wild fantasies, a refusal to dialogue and de-escalate. And the worst part is: It’s all so damned familiar. Once more, we are falling—or rather, being driven—into structural information traps that hamper sound decision-making and force policy choices we might regret dearly when it’s too late.

[…]  notice—and beware—three info-trap patterns common to all of these media moments.

First, beware emotionally charged images that tend to overwhelm reason. […]

Second, beware the treatment of dissent or criticism as treason. […]

Third and finally, beware delusions of total mastery over complex crises. […]

How Not to Think About Ukraine

SOCIETY/CULTURE

10.  The Assault on Classical Music

[…]

You will find far-Left black activist and novelist, Candace Allen—a graduate of whitey’s Harvard—pegging the problem of whitey’s classical music’s whiteness in “Class, race and classical music” at The Guardian. You will find the U.S. (mostly white) taxpayers’-supported National Public Radio (NPR) asking, “Why Is American Classical Music So White?”

One, Nebal Maysaud, “a queer Lebanese composer based in the Washington D.C.” asserted in 2019: “It’s Time to Let Classical Music Die.” Maysaud declared his victimhood as a “musician of colour” who along with his POC (“people of colour”) mates is “exoticised” and “tokenised” and thrown a few scraps by whiteys.

“Western classical music is not about culture. It’s about whiteness,” diagnosed postcolonial Nebal before proceeding to such unintentionally comedic statements as “European traditions which serve the specious belief that whiteness has a culture,” and “Western classical music depends on people of colour to uphold its facade as a modern, progressive institution.”

[…]

Seen in this context, the whining of poisoned white minds about the “whiteness in classical music” is a stream of demented ordure, and the “canceling” of classical composers of yore because of their racism is a hypocritical exercise of a double bias of presentism and relativism, i.e. judging white people who lived a hundred, two, or three hundred years ago by the standards of today, and not judging “people of colour” (POCs) who lived then—or even those who live now—by the same standard. As to the POCs’ criticism of the whiteness of classical music, that’s an understandable bias that white people of sound mind ought to ignore, or else complain in return about the blackness of basketball, short-distance running, rap, hip-hop, and male jewellery.

https://forumfordemocracy.com/article/the-assault-on-classical-music

11.  Resets in Utah

The “stake” in stakeholder capitalism goes through the heart of individual liberties.

We hear much these days about paradigm shifts and resets. Much of the chat comes from crucibles like the World Economic Forum. The WEF is a kind of “masters of the universe” boys club that meets to greet, eat, and ski at fabulously expensive hotels and restaurants in Davos, Switzerland. The globalist press covers these champagne and caviar festivals because the Fourth Estate loves to hobnob with power and money. The holy grail these days seems to be the pursuit of a “great reset,” or stakeholder capitalism; in practice a Beijing model, more like capital Communism. A Chicom theologian would argue that their “capitalism” is just a phase on the way to totalitarian social stability. For monopolist mandarins in America and Europe, the Covid-19 crisis is indeed a golden opportunity to remake the world, “capitalism with a Chinese face” if you will.

[…]

Big reset there too.

Below the radar since 9/11, a digital hardware paradigm shift is underway also, out in the desert sands. Bluffdale, Utah is now ground zero for a mega-shift in the metadata trade.

[…]

The siting of mega collection and storage in Bluffdale is no happenstance either. That desert oasis has three distinctions; isolation, sister wives, and a state prison. NSA, a DOD agency, has a sweetheart deal with Utah State Police where local cops are paid $50 per hour for perimeter security. In exchange, NSA is unlikely to see any citizen dissent or unsightly protests anywhere near Bluffdale’s harems or the NSA data facility.

https://www.newenglishreview.org/resets-in-utah/

12.  We Will Delete You

How liberal democracies acquired the power to end your participation in society with the push of a button

Before beating a hasty retreat, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau went where no world leader has gone before. Last month, he became the first Western leader to wield the financial system as a push-button weapon of government enforcement against opinions and behaviors that he found politically distasteful or inconvenient. This is an entirely new form of power, which much of the world has not even begun to reckon with—but which may well define our politics in the years to come.

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/we-will-delete-you

The post PI Newsletter #184 appeared first on Polonia Institute.